I'll maintain my prediction that in ten years, the US will be a world soccer powerhouse, for a number of reasons. The demographic of the US is changing, with many immigrants from Hispanic, soccer-loving countries. MLS is expanding into larger markets.
And most importantly, it has become the largest amateur youth sport in the country.
http://www.usyouthsoccer.org/aboutus/WhatIsYouthSoccer/
If the demand is there, tv will follow.
I will be interested to see what the changing demographic does to America's global football strength. The growth of Latino immigrants has certainly changed American politics and culture over the past couple of decades, especially in border states, so there's certainly a possibility that it could also change sporting culture.
One of the key issues is whether the interest in youth soccer will persist, especially among the most talented athletes, as they get older. The ubiquity of high-profile, highly-paid athletes from sports like baseball, basketball, and American football means that American youth has tended to view these sports as the most desirable, especially when it come to those who really have the athletic potential to move to the pro level. Many Americans who play soccer as kids begin to move to the more traditional American sports as they get to high school. I'll be interested to see if that trend changes very much.
Sporting cultures persist tenaciously within nations, and shifting the overall culture away from the "big 3" (big 4 if you include hockey) in the US is a bigger challenge than simply enrolling more kids in youth soccer. It could be that the rise of Latino immigrants and other groups will help to shift that culture, but it is often the case that the children of immigrants gravitate
towards the sporting culture of their adopted country, partly in order to fit in, and partly because that's where the greatest rewards seem to be. One thing that competitions like the World Cup, and the broadcasting of leagues like the English Premier League can do, though, is make clear to American kids that being a professional soccer player can offer the same sort of rewards, in terms of money and fame, as making the NBA or NFL or MLB.
One thing, it seems to me, that might benefit soccer in the US is that, unlike the major American pro sports, it is a sport where sheer size and strength does not offer such massive advantages. The players in all the American pro sports are, on the whole, much bigger than the average person. Check out the tables on
this page. While there has been a trend of soccer players getting bigger, there are plenty of outstanding short players around, and Barcelona, one of the best club teams in the world, is also the shortest team in Europe (or was in 2011, when
this article was written. If the bigger guys score the spots on the basketball and baseball and American football teams, smaller guys with skills could gravitate towards soccer.
Of course, producing more soccer players is not quite the same thing as increasing the popularity of soccer as a professional spectator sport. It is possible, for example, that the US will begin to produce more world-class players, but that those players will continue (like Clint Dempsey and others) to make their name predominantly in foreign leagues like the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, etc., etc. And it is possible that this will happen without really generating much more domestic interest in soccer beyond the current spike in interest every four years during the World Cup.
For domestic interest to turn soccer into a true competitor for the other big pro sports will take more than some World Cup success, or a few more Americans in the European leagues. It's all about the media, and whether there's any media outlet that is really willing to put big money into the broadcasting of the sport. Yes, ESPN and NBC broadcast MLS, but
last season ESPN averaged under 230,000 viewers per game, and NBC was closer to 100,000. That's in a country of over 300 million people.
NBC's EPL rating are much better, with
almost 5 million people combining to watch the final weekend's games this season. But this number represented almost 20 percent of NBC's total EPL audience for the year, and it's not quite clear that Americans are willing to devote hours a week to soccer throughout the season, especially during the period from August to January when college football and the NFL dominate American sports viewing.
I would love it if Americans got more into soccer. For one thing, if there was more available on free-to-air TV, it would mean that i could watch more Premier League games without having to download them from the internet. And i think it's probable that soccer will continue to grow as a participant sport, a spectator sport, and a media sport in the United States. It's even possible that the US will become a world power in international competition. But i really doubt that it will do more than fill niche—possibly quite a large niche, but still a niche—in the American sports media landscape. The hold of the big 3 sports is just too great, i think.