Bitcoin discussion and news

Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by camouflage, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. kropotkin

    kropotkin libcom

    The train will suddenly stop moving because the resource cost to mine further bitcoins or process transactions will become too great.
    NoXion likes this.
  2. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    Isn't that like saying mobile phones won't take off because who's going to wheel a car battery around with them.
  3. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    Not really. That is a false analogy imo.
    NoXion likes this.
  4. keybored

    keybored ㋛̶̶̵̙̜̝̖̝̭̎̀̔̌̕

    A better analogy would be to say that a car battery isn't going to cut it. Due to an inherent flaw in the whole idea, the battery would have to double in size every year because the power needed to make a call increases over time.
    NoXion and The Fornicator like this.
  5. camouflage

    camouflage "marginalia".

    No, in this scenario the wall itself represents all that, the train that is bitcoin's power demand slams into the wall of un-susteinability and perhaps makes a mess big enough to have political repercussions (campaigns, protests, amendments, clampdowns, riots, hashtags, sanctions, wars?)

    By the way bitcoin difficulty can also adjust downwards, compromises security though so now you'd need the power of a few less stars or something to brute force it i guess. The free-floaty economics of the concept is supposed to bounce around between these supply/demand relationships and that is what we've seen happen. Other coins do adjustments much more rapidly, Bcash for example but that’s even worse.

    The train doesn't suddenly stop moving because energy, momentum or inertia don't dissapear. Bitcoin "has mass" and it's travelling at speed- loans have been taken, bricks and mortar put together, hardware developed, power contracts drawn up, positions taken, projects launched, people employed, millions of hours sunk into code. Debts and obligations don't dssapear so the price doesn't go up or down for free.

    If bitcoin could just tulip and go away then there'd really be no need to worry about scary ecological walls now would there. The ecological question is real and a concern because bitcoin is real and seems pretty fucking insistent on having a future.
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2017
  6. camouflage

    camouflage "marginalia".

    Argue use-value all you want mate, the billions keep flowing though regardless of your opinion. Aren't theories supposed to give us an understanding of reality? If the reality doesn't conform to your theory than perhaps your theory is wrong. But whatever, I don't really see myself as an expert on any of this- just a concerned third party, but will try to ignore the five-hundred billion dollar elephant in the room if you insist.

    Maybe I have been having a little too much fun on the whole "devils coin" thing, but knocking back religious propaganda is always a special kind of thrill for me even when it's become "received wisdom" religious propaganda. Bubbles are real of course, bitcoin may even be in one- I even consider bitcoin part pyramid (a sort of creepily hovering pyramid that will broaden, flatten- and may one day wrap-around and consume the global economy- so same like neo-liberalism then... crypto-liberalism?)

    I even suggest that maybe a bitcoin-bubble may not take the form expected and turn up as a credit-bubble... but tulips are literally the worst example of a bubble that one could bring to fight a deflationary cryptocurrency. Please try harder.

    Anyone thinking maybe bitcoin is a not so great idea is someone who should be able to articulate their arguments without resort to the tones of lazy elitism... all I'm saying to that is check those signals.

    Actually. if you read my posts and came away with what you did then what's the point, nothing of this will penetrate anyway so here's some random words; pineapples, clogs, tea-cup, ostrich, purple. Make of em whatever you will.
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2017
    The Fornicator likes this.
  7. Yossarian

    Yossarian free shrugs

    It sounds like a closer parallel than tulips might be the dot-com bust - or the "British Railway Mania" of the 1840s.

    There was a "collective hallucination," as this researcher puts it:
    Collective Hallucinations and Inefficient Markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s by Andrew Odlyzko :: SSRN

    People did make fortunes from the railways, just not those people. When governments, or companies like Apple, launch their own digital currencies, is anybody still going to want Bitcoin or Litecoin or whatever?
    NoXion, bimble and kabbes like this.
  8. kabbes

    kabbes "A top 400 poster"

    The tulip bubble is only invoked to remind people that speculation bubbles do exist and seem real to those in them a thing the time. But the bitcoin situation is not exactly like the tulip speculation bubble.

    No, it is far more like the Madoff pyramid. Note the value of that pyramid when it collapsed — over $60bn. Again, that was real people’s money. Take this:

    Now insert the word “Madoff pyramid” and you basically get the same argument. Ok, so you replace “power contracts” with “broker contracts” and “millions of hours of code” with “millions of hours of marketing”, but it’s the same thing.

    When the Madoff pyramid finally collapsed, businesses went bust, powerful individuals became bankrupt, the high and mighty ended up with a lot of egg on their face. There were vested interests in keeping it going. It broke anyway, because it was a pyramid, but it took a long time — something like 20 years. And some individuals made a lot of money in that time — returns were something like 10% per annum each and every year. Pyramids don’t necessarily collapse immediately.

    The Madoff pyramid was also based on something tangible, by the way — the stocks the pyramid was built on were all real.

    You seem to think there is a contradiction between being alarmed at the energy consumption of bitcoin on the one hand and noting it is a use value-free pyramid on the other. But there is no contradiction. Like the Madoff pyramid, the bitcoin pyramid can potentially sustain itself for a long time and, like the Madoff pyramid, the longer it sustains itself, the messier it will be once it collapses. But unlike other pyramids, this one also has massive real world consequences in terms of climate change. And those consequences are happening right now. If the pyramid keeps going another year or so, these consequences will become profound and irreversible, even once the whole thing dissolves.
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2017
  9. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    So not a bubble at all then.
  10. kabbes

    kabbes "A top 400 poster"

    What do you understand an investment bubble to be?
  11. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    Not this:

    You'll note the similarity with Forex trading - dozens of currency pairs, mostly paired with BTC and Ethereum,which are similar the $USD and euro of crypto.

    You're right to correct your thinking in terms of a bubble but you have gone in diametrically the wrong direction in trying to work this as a ponzi 'scheme'. You don't seem to grasp the scale of a $trillion business that embraces every country and involves tens of thousands of individual actors.
    camouflage likes this.
  12. bimble

    bimble noisy but small

    A couple of clicks away and by the same author is this Bubbles, Gullibility, and Other Challenges for Economics, Psychology, Sociology, and Information Sciences by Andrew Odlyzko :: SSRN

    An attempt to create a 'gullibility index' by which to measure whether or not something is a bubble. (i can't get access to the piece of work itself but sounds really good) :)
    Yossarian likes this.
  13. mauvais

    mauvais change has become unavoidable

    So what? The trade in subprime debt, credit default swaps and the like fits what you've just said, and yet I would still happily file them - in their sum total - under Ponzi schemes.
    instape and NoXion like this.
  14. camouflage

    camouflage "marginalia".

    Thanks for the quality reply. I get what you're saying... the pyramid in bitcoin is how it's meant to charge-up the adoption curve and so far that feature has been working as intended. So where are we headed, will the bitcoin pyramid collapse... or will it continue to work as intended and remain expansive long enough (along with the halvenings) to become the new normal, so that instead of collapsing it just shifts the paradigm (flattens, broadens, engulfs the world economy). And if that's the case then what happens then, does it strangle us in deflationary economics and choke us on our own waste-products and send the survivors back to subsistence farming... or does it usher in a new age of peace, justice and freedom for all?

    Personally, I reckon same-shit-different-day. Even if bitcoin in the longer run (after some 'issues' have been ironed out) proves to be a really good idea full of amazing possibilities you have to account for the fact that humans fuck things up, humans always fuck things up. First we'll figure out how to involve the sex-industry in whatever new invention (done) then we'll figure out how to attack the environment with it (sort-of doing) and then we'll figure out how to weaponize it (should be a way to squeeze some sort of city-killer out of this thing, wonder if DARPA is already on the case). Bitcoins pyramid dynamic has all the upside in the world to feed on (money and mindshare), I don't think it'll collapse till it's done, whatever that turns out to mean. We could end up wishing it had collapsed, what if the pyramid collapsing Madoff-style turns out to be the good outcome and preferable to the alternative?
  15. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Among the many, many nonsenses you've been coming out with, camouflage, is this spurious notion that you can apply terms like inflation and deflation to bitcoin. You can't.
    NoXion likes this.
  16. BigTom

    BigTom Well-Known Member

    I'm sure processors will get more energy efficient but you can't wave technological advances as a solution when the amount of energy use is an issue right now, and using carbon free/neutral/sustainable energy sources for btc means not using them for other things, so you have to justify btc's energy useage regardless of the climate change problem.
    Your last sentence does not match what I see people's criticisms of btc and btc speculation as. I don't think anyone who is criticising the speculators is criticising poor people doing it any more or less than rich people doing it.

    btc has some use, so it won't collapse to nothing, question is where does it collapse to or does it keep increasing in value. It's an odd thing because for someone buying drugs the value of btc doesn't matter, because what you are buying is priced in £/$. Price only matters to the speculators, miners and I guess the people running exchanges and things like that. So it's hard to disconnect the price driven through use of btc and the price driven through speculation, as the users of btc are only going to be put off by higher transaction fees, not by higher prices.

    btc believers are often overzealous envangelisers and ime mostly libertarians so not so much not give a fuck about society as flat out deny its existence. They drove btc through the initial period, the mtgox failure which I thought would destroy btc by exposing its lack of security and potential for manipulation by certain individual players in the markets, and kept it going until criminal organisations and silk road gave it a use beyond international money transfers. Prior to that I saw it like a local currency - people who have an ideological belief in it use it but it doesn't have utility really, it's more hassle to use than normal currency, so you won't use it unless you are driven to for other reasons.
    More recent speculators are not libertarians but are get-rich-quick schemers...

    ... and yes you can say all this and it's not exactly wrong but that doesn't make speculation right. Aside from inherited money you can either work for money, run a business (=work other people for money) or speculate. Of the three someone is likely to get as much flak for running a business but at least a business can produce things that are of use to people, that improve lives in some way. Speculation adds nothing of value, and just pushes up the price for people who are wanting to buy the thing that is being speculated on to actually use it (not a problem with btc as mentioned above but is an issue with metals and food I believe).

    I have no idea why you've said all this. Anyone transacting in btc is directly responsible for the electricity processing that transaction is using. If that person can conduct their transaction via a different method (which will use order(s) of magnitude less electricity) they should do so. You can't escape capitalism but this is like louise mensch on hignfy talking about occupy protesters drinking coffee.

    Is anyone using btc as a long term store of value now? I can't believe that, it's price is far too volatile and future too unproven. Yeah people are saying "btc is my pension" because they are expecting to speculate and make enough cash to retire on.
    Climate change is an issue here and now. 50 years can fuck off quite frankly, you can't just imagine it'll be orders of magnitudes more efficient and therefore not worry about the insane amounts of electricity being used and carbon being generated when we are massively behind the best ideas of what we need to do to minimise the affects of climate change. Anything btc can do can be done more efficiently by existing systems.
    and if nike's production processes used many orders of magnitude more energy than adidas' to produce effectively the same product then I would say not to buy nike, of course. Nothing to do with bling chavs or what nike's look like and I don't think anyone on this thread is saying anything like that, nor would I pretend it's a criticism of capitalism at all, effective or not.
  17. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Price wobbling as South Korea threatens regulation. Another of the big lies about btc is that it's impervious to government control. It very clearly isn't. The Chinese govt seems to be tolerating/encouraging it at the moment. If it ever changes its mind, the bubble will collapse within days.
    NoXion likes this.
  18. JimW

    JimW 支那暗杀团

    Weirdly they've cracked down hard on the trading of the coins just not the mining
  19. camouflage

    camouflage "marginalia".

    South Korea's Bitcoin Regulation is Highly Optimistic, False Reports Claim Ban - Coinjournal

    Last edited: Dec 30, 2017
  20. camouflage

    camouflage "marginalia".

    thanks, there was previously the concern I should take your thoughts more seriously.
    The Fornicator likes this.
  21. Ranbay

    Ranbay The same rules apply

    And here comes the drop ;)
    phillm likes this.
  22. Ranbay

    Ranbay The same rules apply

    Told ya :cool:
  23. Kesher

    Kesher #Cookie Jar

    Very interesting interview

  24. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    It's a primer of sorts. As this thread demonstrates everyone is in their own place on the curve of understanding the scale of change afoot.
  25. Chilli.s

    Chilli.s changed the little words

    Just love the idea that the banks are shitting themselves over it.
    NoXion likes this.
  26. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    A nice turn of phase saying this was "an extinction level event".
  27. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    @ the above interview:

    'can it overcome it's unstable nature'



    He's talking transhuman stuff as well.

    E2a again, sorry.. I got bored and had a fag, came back and he was still babbling so I hit stop. :)
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
  28. Fez909

    Fez909 toilet expert

    The banks are in on it. Look up Ripple. 2nd biggest crypto-coin now. Growing at ridiculous rates (3000% in a few months).

    It's funded by Bank of America, The Royal Bank of Canada, Santander, UniCredit, Standard Chartered, Westpac Banking Corporation and more.
    NoXion and Chilli.s like this.
  29. maomao

    maomao 四月她爹

    How does one get hold of small amounts of btc now? Bittylicious wants to change a minimum of £100 worth. I can't see me needing that much in the foreseeable future.
  30. The Fornicator

    The Fornicator Well-Known Member

    I started off on Kraken, mainly because it was in the EU (Denmark), though of course that may mean nothing.

    They will need proper ID (like a driving license, a photo of you (from your phone is fine) so they can see the two match, and obv bank account details - you will be transferring to them from your a/c. It takes several days to get sorted. Anyway, it's an option:

    Fwiw, I wouldn't trade with Kraken as they're withdrawn the stop loss option. But for just holding BTC, it's up to you but they seemed fine.

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