betting service legality query

[fractionMan]

In terms of bankroll advice, I'll speak from experience as a poker player:

You need twice the bankroll you think you do. Seriously. Variance is a complete bitch and at some point you'll go through the worse run imaginable.

Calculate your risk of ruin. What are the worst case scenarios, how likely are they? How many favourites have to lose in a row before you go broke?

 

[fractionMan]

In roulette the systems work a bit like

They're more like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

If your system involves putting bigger bets on to recover losses you're fucked btw. You will go broke at some point.

Do you have a graph of the contents of the imaginary account over the whole timespan?

 

[Donna Ferentes]

They're more like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

If your system involves putting bigger bets on to recover losses you're fucked

As indeed is your page:

Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name

 

[Donna Ferentes]

Try this

 

[stupid kid]

In what pub did he say this and at what hour?

I think the people LBJ refers to are called the 101 brigade, (because they frequently take or lay massive bets for odds of 1.01 on betfair). Every so often, you get some odd result or late ruling or somesuch, fucks them right up.

 

[Shippou-Sensei]

the end bracket gets missed off when the link is parsed

just add a )

 

[Crispy]

links that end in ) get broken by the automatic link-maker in vbulletin. common with wikipedia links.

 

[fractionMan]

As indeed is your page:

Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name

stupid vbulletin

 

[Donna Ferentes]

My favourite punters are the people who bet on the coin toss. You can usually get something like 20/21 on that.

 

[Athos]

I would consider backing your system, but I'd need far more detail, though i.e. exactly how it works, and some evidence of the success you claim to have acheived in the 'dry run'.

But, before you do, I have to say that I'm slightly cynical, as I have seen many 'systems' which people have told me are foolproof, but in respect of which I have very quickly been able to demonstrate to them a fatal flaw.

Whilst I doubt that your system is a sound as you suggest, the proposed return does sound tempting, and I'd think about taking what I seems like a big risk, for such a big return.

You will just have to take the chance that I won't nick your idea, as you don't know me from Adam; but, remember, that I don't know you either, and without some financial backing you're plan won't get off the ground. PM me if you're interested in my genuine offer to consider investment.

 

[London_Calling]

In terms of bankroll advice, I'll speak from experience as a poker player:

You need twice the bankroll you think you do. Seriously. Variance is a complete bitch and at some point you'll go through the worse run imaginable.

Calculate your risk of ruin. What are the worst case scenarios, how likely are they? How many favourites have to lose in a row before you go broke?

Yep, people very rarely understand sequences. We had a thread last year I think when I posted the longest losing fav sequences - which are a statistic certainty.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

My favourite punters are the people who bet on the coin toss. You can usually get something like 20/21 on that.

Ooo, ooo, good odds. Just wait for a run of four heads in a row and bet tails on the next one. Law of averages and all that.

Seriously, though, it amazes me how few people understand basic probability. It should be taught much more explicitly at school because it's a basic life skill.

 

[Donna Ferentes]

But, as the roulette systems demonstrate, it's not enough.

 

[kabbes]

A little probability knowledge is a very dangerous thing. Life is never as straightforward as a simple game in a probability question. Even games aren't as straightforward as a simple game in a probability question.

If you flipped 200 heads in a row from this fair coin, what's your chance of getting a tail next time?

 

[kabbes]

That wasn't a rhetorical question, by the way.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A little probability knowledge is a very dangerous thing. Life is never as straightforward as a simple game in a probability question. Even games aren't as straightforward as a simple game in a probability question.

If you flipped 200 heads in a row from this fair coin, what's your chance of getting a tail next time?

If you got 200 heads, you might have cause to first check the coin's fairness or the flipper's technique.

 

[kabbes]

If you got 200 heads, you might have cause to first check the coin's fairness or the flipper's technique.

Bingo, that is the right answer.

But it isn't the answer a probability class would give you.

 

[Donna Ferentes]

If you got 200 heads, you'd need to have some very broad shoulders.

 

[Crispy]

Or very small heads

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Bingo, that is the right answer.

But it isn't the answer a probability class would give you.

Isn't it? Understanding probability will tell you that eight heads in a row, say, with a fair coin is perfectly possible, but that the chances of 200 heads in a row are so astronomically small that such a result almost certainly shows that your assumptions (in this case fair coin, fair flipping) are wrong.

 

[Shippou-Sensei]

Or very small heads

headettes

 

[Donna Ferentes]

Can things be "astronomically small"? "Microscopically", surely?

 

[bluestreak]

Space dust?

 

[Shippou-Sensei]

Can things be "astronomically small"? "Microscopically", surely?

i think everything is small on an astronomic scale

 

[Donna Ferentes]

What about space?

"Big, isn't it?"

 

[hammerntongues]

Have you told the investers in Hedge Funds this...?

A system suggests no emotional or irrational decisions just follow the directions , hedge funds are full of people , in bull and bear markets , that follow the herd with no fore-thought , system or otherwise , if everyone is doing it it must be OK ........ thats where it all went wrong ( and greed of course)

 

[Shippou-Sensei]

What about space?

"Big, isn't it?"

space is the thing to be measured in

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Can things be "astronomically small"? "Microscopically", surely?

The further away from certainty – a probability of 1 – you get, the larger the number you need to describe a probability. I stand by my original phrasing. An astronomically small probability might, for instance, involve a number whose context could only be described by reference to, say, the number of electrons in the universe.

 

[kained&able]

Isn't it? Understanding probability will tell you that eight heads in a row, say, with a fair coin is perfectly possible, but that the chances of 200 heads in a row are so astronomically small that such a result almost certainly shows that your assumptions (in this case fair coin, fair flipping) are wrong.

8? i once threw 22 heads in a row!

actually that reminds me.

dave

 

[fogbat]

headettes

Headlets.