Automated vehicles - how soon is now?

[kabbes]

Most may do that to work and back. Add in OAPs who go to the shops once a week and sales reps and taxi drivers who may spend 8 hours a day or more and 95% seems reasonable.

Anyway that figure seems to come from the US, but is broadly similar in other countries:

"Cars are parked 95% of the time". Let's check! ~ Reinventing Parking

That agrees with me that 5% generally seems to be an overestimate, if anything. It suggests 4% is more realistic.

By the way, 14% of people work from home

ONS: Record numbers working from home - BBC News

Another huge chunk walk or take the train

And another huge chunk don't work at all

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Plus, driving is great. it brings a level of personal freedom that cannot be matched by anything else.

 

[mauvais]

I don't have the statistics one way or other. In my particular bubble, however, I'm pretty typical. Not that I think my bubble is the norm.

Cash vs finance, I suppose. Once you're locked into - or just comfortable in - contract finance arrangements, perhaps excluding HP, you're incentivised to keep them going. Less so if you buy outright. Once you go down the route of leasing, and cease to even be the registered keeper, car-as-a-service is only another step away.

 

[mauvais]

Plus, driving is great. it brings a level of personal freedom that cannot be matched by anything else.

For the majority of people, a car isn't the freedom to feel the wind in their hair as they ascend the Passo dello Stelvio, it's the 'freedom' to sit in the same traffic jam every single day getting angry at other people doing the same. This kind of stuff is niche and isn't going to stand in the way of AV adoption. See also: manual gearboxes, chokes, etc.

It's none of these 'but what abouts', not the consumer, and not even really any technical challenges that will slow AV adoption. It's big stuff - economics and legislation.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I have a sneaking suspension that for me, cars as a service will certainly not work out cheaper.

 

[Yossarian]

I can see the technology maybe taking off in a few cities or small countries, but I don't think people in places like Texas are going to give up driving any sooner than they'll give up their guns.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

For the majority of people, a car isn't the freedom to feel the wind in their hair as they ascend the Passo dello Stelvio, it's the 'freedom' to sit in the same traffic jam every single day getting angry at other people doing the same.

No, it's the freedom to be able to do a dozen things in a day on different sides of the city. It's the freedom to have a pile of kids crap permanently in the boot so we don't have to think about what to take out with us that day. It's the freedom to be able to just head out the door on a schedule of our own choosing etc etc

I will never, ever give up owning a car. None of the alternatives ever floated as "the future" are anything like as useful or flexible.

 

[Yossarian]

I can see the technology maybe taking off in a few cities or small countries, but I don't think people in places like Texas Birmingham are going to give up driving

 

[Santino]

No, it's the freedom to be able to do a dozen things in a day on different sides of the city. It's the freedom to have a pile of kids crap permanently in the boot so we don't have to think about what to take out with us that day. It's the freedom to be able to just head out the door on a schedule of our own choosing etc etc

I will never, ever give up owning a car. None of the alternatives ever floated as "the future" are anything like as useful or flexible.

You would get different kinds of freedoms with car as a service. Get dropped off at one point, take a long walk, have a few drinks, and get picked up from another point. Transfer to a larger car if you acquire a huge bag of cheeses. Split the party into two. Never get stranded by the side of a road for three hours because of engine trouble.

 

[xenon]

Who's saying automated cars will lead to an end to private vehicle ownership?

Bees can have his car, whilst I can hire a Mo-pod™ for the day.

 

[PursuedByBears]

I cycle or walk to work but most of the places I drive to (Lakes, Dales, Forest of Bowland, Dumfries & Galloway) don't even have 3G so driverless cars seem like an awfully long way off. Might work in cities but it would be a mistake to assume that what seems feasible in London will work in the rest of the country.

Also, I LIKE driving. I don't like being a passenger.

 

[mauvais]

No, it's the freedom to be able to do a dozen things in a day on different sides of the city. It's the freedom to have a pile of kids crap permanently in the boot so we don't have to think about what to take out with us that day. It's the freedom to be able to just head out the door on a schedule of our own choosing etc etc

I will never, ever give up owning a car. None of the alternatives ever floated as "the future" are anything like as useful or flexible.

Eventually, given the dawn of autonomous vehicles, ownership of cars will morph into leasing of cars, which will morph into shorter and shorter term rental to the point of just being an Uberesque trip-based model.

Obviously you can refuse to own an autonomous car altogether but eventually you will become the outlier, and maintaining this approach will become increasingly difficult/disadvantageous in comparison, so let's assume you get one too.

You won't be forced to adopt a service model, but you will be incentivised, by the economics alone. You'll be able to continue to have your own dedicated car, either by owning one privately (for a while) or taking out a dedicated rental subscription, but it will cost you much more than everyone else and you will start to wonder why you pay massively over the odds just to avoid loading your kids' stuff into it. Before long, most people of this opinion will fall in line with the trend.

 

[bimble]

I wish they'd hurry up and get on with it, given the limited success of my learning to drive efforts so far this year.

 

[2hats]

There was a Tesla on a US motorway on autopilot and it failed to see a truck turning in front of it and drove straight under the trailer killing the occupant without once touching the brakes.

The ‘autopilot’ feature on that vehicle model is semi-autonomous* and requires the driver to have hands on and pay attention at all times, which in this instance they failed (chose not) to do so. They were warned by the on board system about the need to put their hands on the wheel several times prior to the collision, according to the NTSB report (which details that throughout the entire 37 minute trip the driver had their hands on the steering wheel for a total of 25 seconds).

You won't be forced to adopt a service model, but you will be incentivised, by the economics alone.

The insurance costs, to take one example, will increasingly drive the vast majority of people towards the service model.

e2a: * to clarify - the kit on that model was the 2014 generation ‘hardware 1’, assistive not driverless, the latest 2016 ‘hardware 2’ can be configured to be driverless (pending regulatory approval).

 

[T & P]

Has anyone considered the privacy issue? I guess if you carry a mobile phone you can already be tracked live by The Man, but programming your automated car to drive you to your dealer's address is on a different level and seems particularly foolhardy.

 

[DotCommunist]

they better have installed a 'pull into the nearest layby for me to have a slash' button, we need a youtube vid on how to nix the ciggy smoke detector and yes I will eat a stinking kebab in there.

 

[NoXion]

they better have installed a 'pull into the nearest layby for me to have a slash' button, we need a youtube vid on how to nix the ciggy smoke detector and yes I will eat a stinking kebab in there.

In that case I'll wait for the versions with interiors capable of power-washing and blow-drying themselves. I'd rather not have to travel in a confined space with the ghost of someone else's post-pub supper.

 

[DotCommunist]

In that case I'll wait for the versions with interiors capable of power-washing and blow-drying themselves. I'd rather not have to travel in a confined space with the ghost of someone else's post-pub supper.

you know the 20p bogs you get self clean when nobody is in there right? Thats how all the post-pub cars should be, non of this human thing of 'you've puked in my fucking cab thats a 50 quid valet' ever again

 

[Sea Star]

I've just received an invite to this. Really tempted to go.

Herbert Smith Freehills Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Conference



The advent of connected and autonomous driving technology is being hailed by many as a revolution in the automotive sector. But this is not the only sector that may be radically altered. The possible applications of this technology are far reaching and straddle a variety of different sectors including aerial, marine, public roads, private and public transportation, space, military, agriculture, mining and many others.

If change on such a broad scale is just around the corner, the question must be asked: what are the potential implications?

Herbert Smith Freehills hopes you will be able to join us for an afternoon of panel discussions, on topics including:

· The evolving global regulatory and commercial landscape for connected and autonomous technology

· Smart cities and the impact of autonomous vehicles on infrastructure projects

· Big data, cybersecurity and data protection issues

· Challenges and opportunities for the insurance industry

· Product liability and class action risks

· M&A trends and cross industry collaboration


Confirmed external speakers include:

· Peter Campbell, Financial Times, Motor Industry Correspondent

· Matthew Hudson, TfL, Head of Strategy, Technology and Data

· David Davies, Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety, Executive Director

· Helen Fletcher, Uber, Senior Compliance & Litigation Counsel

· Iwan Parry, TRL, Head of Insurance

· Professor Gary Burnett, Faculty of Engineering at the University of Nottingham, Professor of Transport Human Factors

· Lee Street, AECOM, Director and Head of Technology Services

· Stephen Gibson, SLG Economics, Director (formerly, Chief Economist and Director of Economic Policy at Postcom, Chief Economist at Ofwat, Principal Economist at Ofcom and Head of Economics at Network Rail)

· Roger Madelin, Head of Canada Water Development, British Land and Commissioner of The Independent Transport Commission

 

[Cloo]

Sounds really interesting AuntiStella - wouldn't mind being invited to it myself (we've had guys from HSF writing for us before, so I might be on mailing list)

beesonthewhatnow - I do wonder about the 'crap in your boot' thing. Certainly, when we were in a two-bed flat with a preschooler and a baby, the car boot was totally storage, at least for the buggy and other baby stuff. I do wonder what would happen about car seats... I guess either a certain number of vehicles travel about with them; people just have a set and take them from a to b; someone develops AVs which have seats that can turn into safe child/baby seats somehow.

I'll admit I'm not sure what I'd do as a passenger in an AV as I'm one of those people who can't read in cars without feeling sick, though I can read in any other form of transport. That said, I do cope with long journeys as a passenger in an ordinary car now.

 

[HAL9000]

This economist article is interesting, it gives some idea of the challenges that need to be over come.


http://www.economist.com/news/scien...-being-around-cornerreal-driverless-cars-will

Scale of autonomous vehicles devised by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), it goes from Level 0 (humans controlling the car) to Level 5.

"In theory, Level 4 technology should at least be safer. Such vehicles will carry out all the critical driving functions on their own, from the start of the journey to the end. The only proviso is that they will be restricted to roads they have been designed for. That means routes that have been mapped in three dimensions and geofenced by GPS signals, to prevent them straying outside their designated zones. Ride-sharing services like Lyft and Uber are likely to be the first to operate Level 4 vehicles.

In fully autonomous Level 5 motoring, the vehicles have to perform in all respects at least as well as human drivers—in short, be capable of going anywhere, in every conceivable condition, and cope with the most unpredictable of situations. That means traveling on dirt tracks off the map, in blizzards, thunderstorms or pitch darkness, with animals bursting out of bushes, children chasing runaway balls, crazy people doing crazy things"

 

[weltweit]

HAL9000 I thought that was a good article.

 

[keybored]

14% of people work from home

ONS: Record numbers working from home - BBC News

Another huge chunk walk or take the train

And another huge chunk don't work at all

I'm going to guess a lot of the above don't own a vehicle.

 

[Cloo]

Been talking to my other half about this topic - he reckons that, in the UK at least, it won't happen in our lifetime for legislative reasons and unwillingness to give up private vehicle ownership. Interestingly, he sees AVs and shared use as totally separate things, whereas in almost everything I've read, AVs are basically discussed purely in terms of a totally shared economy.

 

[urbanspaceman]

Download

Report: 95% of US car miles will be electric, autonomous by 2030

It's difficult to fault the conclusions of this thorough and chunky report. Basically it predicts a transition to an electric "transport as a service" model over a seven year period in the 2020s. That's about as long as the wet film -> digital camera switchover took. Whether people enjoy driving or not, if "TaaS" vehicles are 10 times safer and 10 times cheaper per mile, as forecast, then there will huge pressure to transition. So it's the end for dealerships, driving jobs, most maintenance jobs, most vehicle manufacturing and most car insurance. This might be worth bearing in mind for anyone who is planning to buy a traditional car over the next few years, as in the early 2020s it will become a "stranded asset" with zero or negative resale value.

 

[2hats]

Edit. Duh. Wrong thread.

Something useful: The Driven consortium plan to trial driverless cars on UK motorways by 2019. The government have been enthusiastically supporting such developments. I suspect full automation will arrive sooner than most people (outside of the R&D) anticipate and wetware drivers will eventually be seen as a liability other than in the most extreme of circumstances.

 

[Cloo]

Interesting thought about buying cars in the next decade urbanspaceman Guess we'll have to make make the next car crappy too.

As you mention, the whole maintenance thing week be turned on its head. I don't think it will go but I guess it will be 'owned' by vehicle managing/tech businesses and you certainly won't have your little location garage anymore. Maybe big out of town 'repair hangars' and smaller workshops within dense urban AV parking lots.

 

[DotCommunist]

Interesting thought about buying cars in the next decade urbanspaceman Guess we'll have to make make the next car crappy too.

As you mention, the whole maintenance thing week be turned on its head. I don't think it will go but I guess it will be 'owned' by vehicle managing/tech businesses and you certainly won't have your little location garage anymore. Maybe big out of town 'repair hangars' and smaller workshops within dense urban AV parking lots.

they will still break down and need rescuing so I'd think the tow and fix you up places will still exist, if much reduced

 

[urbanspaceman]

they will still break down and need rescuing so I'd think the tow and fix you up places will still exist, if much reduced

Actually, there is nothing much to repair or replace on an electric car - no filters, spark plugs, oil, valves, gaskets, catalytic converter or exhaust. 20 moving parts in a electric drivetrain compared to 2,000 in a conventional cars's drivetrain. Even the brakes need (much) less attention, as a lot of braking work is done through Regenerative Braking, the conventional pads only being applied in extreme circumstances. The report cites an 80%, more likely 90%, decrease in maintenance costs, the residuum being mostly the cost of replacement tires.

Anyway, with "Transport as a Service" (that is the end of personal car ownership), the fleet owner will deal with maintenance behind the scenes, so to speak.

 

[Idaho]

From another thread :

This video does an amazing job of explaining how close we are to a complete disruption, the combo of solar PV, storage, electric vehicles, autonomous driving and computing power are going to change the world so fast it'll make our heads spin -

Be interesting to hear people's thoughts.