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And next, Syria?

Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by Idris2002, Feb 18, 2011.

  1. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On MEI Aleppo's Warlords and Post-War Reconstruction
    So repairing Aleppo alone would take more than a third of the regime's budget. With those sort of resources repairs will take decades. Aleppo isn't the only damaged city in Syria. Damage in Aleppo is focused in poorer quarters. I think that's so in other places as there's a class struggle element to the Sunni Arab rising.

    In old reading Iran spent about $4 billion PA on direct aid to Assad; more on the IRGC's operations. The Iranians are not made of money like the Saudis who once funded a lot of reconstruction in Lebanon in competition with them. Article mentions they've set up the proudly labeled "Iranian Reconstruction Authority” in Syria. That's typical of their deep social influence operations: aid as a revolutionary tool. They seem to be buying up a lot of real estate in Useful Syria. Assad has no other means of repaying them and Persians are savvy investors. They'll have multiple motives for rebuilding but as the article says they're not really rich enough to get this done. I'd imagine they'll also focus resources on neighbourhoods where they are building support for the Khomeinist cause. Those probably won't be the poorest most damaged quarters that most IDPs have fled from.
     
  2. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On CNN Exclusive: US deploys long-range artillery system to southern Syria for first time
    I don't think the Iranians will have much doubt about what that's for.
     
  3. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On AP Russia says US-led coalition colludes with IS in Syria
    This could be an IRGC officer talking.
     
  4. inva

    inva Well-Known Member

    had a little bit of a look for more info on what is going on in Maarat al-Numan and Idlib. It sounds as though the protest followed fighting between HTS and the 13th FSA lot on the previous day. I'd thought that HTS or the JaF Islamist coalition controlled the town but have now seen it described as held by the FSA so not too sure what the reality is. I'm assuming given the wider situation in the area that JaF forces would be dominant.

    anyway while I was searching about that I found an article which I hope hasn't been posted already on the struggle in Idlib City itself between the armed groups (e.g. HTS) and councils/other organisations and local people so thought I'd link it. it's interesting for adding some context to the events in Maarat al-Numan and shows again that though the spirit of the uprising of 2011 has got choked by the way the conflict has developed there remains some means of contesting the nature of the opposition even against the brutal hardline Islamists. The other thing you can see though is the limits of this and how much the space they operate in is squeezed between the violence and repression of the regime and its allies on the one hand and the armed rebels on the other (and perhaps also in another way the nature and practice of the civic activists too).

    [​IMG]
    this sign from Idlib in Feb of this year is translated in the article as saying “The revolution is a people’s revolution, not an armed faction revolution.”

    That the author highlights as praiseworthy 43 women out of 900 voting in an election for the local council (which given the control of HTS/JaF maybe it is) shows some of the severe limitation. but it does suggest that in spite of the rule of the Islamist military and their shura council some demands have been imposed through protests and other actions and that there is an active resistance to things like the policing of women by preachers and the islamists courts.
     
  5. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    These look likely to be connected in some way to the above:



     
    inva likes this.
  6. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    In The NYT U.S.-Led Airstrikes in Syria Killed Hundreds of Civilians, U.N. Panel Says
    Increasing unease about the Coalition air campaign. That's also a big surge of IDPs from a not very densely populated area.

    Mansoura is about 25 kms South of Damascus. If that's been reported much I missed it.
     
  7. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

  8. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On TCF As Arabs Bicker over Qatar, Assad Sees an Angle
    The KSA and Emirates getting in up to their oxters in Yemen must have been rather a relief as well for Assad. Trump's Arab NATO falling out almost instantly over Qatar's ambiguity on Iran and support for other palace worrying Islamists must be just gravy.
     
  9. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On FP White House Officials Push for Widening War in Syria Over Pentagon Objections
    Cohen-Watnick is a "Flynn-stone", a legacy appointment from the previous NSC head that Trump reluctantly fired. The NSC's new head failed in an attempt to to sack him. Mattis it seems remains focused on IS rather than Iran for now. Article points out a move against Iran in Syria would probably screw up the US's relationship with its main anti-IS ally Baghdad.
     
  10. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Atlantic Council The Perilous Race for Post-ISIS Syria
    Points up the most "confusing actor" in Syria is the US. That isn't new. I'd say the US has never had a Syria policy in this war that wasn't wrecked by internal contradictions.
     
  11. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

  12. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On AP Messy fight awaits IS’ next Syrian capital at Mayadeen
    Bit of a silly idea that IS needs a capital. They've never declared one however this is a likely spot to go to earth in. It's not the only one. Hawija in Iraq is another up coming battle. I read the ISF took the al Qaim crossing but IS are still active around there and down to Haditha. Lots of empty country with very little security presence in Iraq and Syria.
     
  13. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge This is definitely the darkest timeline

    This may be of some interest:


    The Threat of Wider Wars in the Middle East and the Responsibilities of Socialists - Alliance of Syrian and Iranian Socialists

    "The alliances currently confronting each other are fighting over the control of the region, its capital, and aim to repress any movements for social justice."

    "At this time, it is the responsibility of Middle Eastern socialists not to fall into the trap of the nationalist and hate-mongering propaganda of their states. Instead, we need to demonstrate that the current changing alliances are an expression of the logic of capital, its racism, misogyny and homophobia. We need solidarity between labor struggles, women’s emancipation struggles and those of oppressed minorities, including oppressed sexual minorities, against this destructive logic and for a humanist alternative.

    Frieda Afary"
     
    yield, seventh bullet and teqniq like this.
  14. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Jamestown After Raqqa: The Challenges Posed by Syria’s Tribal Networks
    My bold, this is true. Roussinos has previously said anyone trying to hold Raqqa is likely to have a difficult time. It was once an area of regime support. I've read elsewhere this is no longer the case although that lingers in the elite. The tribes in this area have long relied on external muscle to settle differences and they are quite fragmented. Given resource problems, Turkish enmity, Rojova's isolation, divides in the SDF, a remaining regime presence in Deir some sort of collaboration with Damascus isn't unlikely.
     
  15. yield

    yield zero

    US shoots down Syrian government fighter jet that dropped bombs near coalition-backed forces fighting Isis
    18/06/17
    Hope this doesn't escalate.
     
  16. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    In TDS Iran says missiles into Syria hit ISIS targets
     
  17. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog Fawj Ra'ad al-Mahdi: East Aleppo Militia Expansion
    LDF unit, The Thunder of the Mahdi Regiment, very Shia name. Interviewee is very nationalist. The full reconquista thing in the snip above is something you hear all the time from loyalists. Complains of being under resourced. They're paid $100/month from Iranian sources. Not a great rate. From memory that's about a quarter of Iraqi Hashd pay and they get a package of other incentives too. This is indeed a cheap path to the sort of influence Iran has in Iraq.
     
  18. DownwardDog

    DownwardDog Riding a Brompton with a power meter.

    The lucky matelot was flying an F/A-18E of VFA-31 (Felix is in the fight!) from CVW-8 embarked on the George H. W. Bush.

    First blood for the Super Hornet.

    E2A: More details from the Pentagon briefing: two Fox Two shots from 1km behind. Obviously following Bader's maxim of "get in close and give him the lot". One missed (there's a reason they don't call them "hittiles"), the second blew the arse end off the Fitter. SyAAF pilot RTB'ed via parachute and Uber.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  19. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

  20. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On TDS Iran calls missile attack on Syria militants a wider warning
    So much for being subtle.
     
  21. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Syria Deeply Analysis: Future of Post-ISIS Raqqa Remains Unclear
    Not the song the SDF people are singing but the article goes into the practicalities.

    Rather them abandoning them after they have served their tactical purpose like the Iraqi Sahwa the DoD might prop up a skint and isolated Rojava indefinitely. IS is liable to linger as a threat after all. With an angry Turkey above Rojova allied to the KRG to the East some sort of US support seems essential. I don't think that'll be Trump's preference finally. He's rather prone to ignoring the Pentagon and rounding on allies yelling something akin to fuck you pay me. Which finally leaves some sort of cooperation with Damascus and perhaps Baghdad.
     
  22. nuffsaid

    nuffsaid But this goes up to 11

  23. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On ISW The Campaign for Ar-Raqqa City: June 6 – 20, 2017
    They've made fairly quick progress in Raqqa. Mayadin is 46kms South of Deir, 91kms North of the Iraqi border, 188kms from Raqqa, population <50K.

    I don't know about IS holding Mayadin indefinitely. A future joint operation with Iraqi forces to clear the Middle Euphrates from Haditha to Deir seems likely to me if not imminent.
     
  24. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On IRIN Aleppo militias become major test for Assad
    Lund on a plague of militia criminality in Aleppo that's pissing off wealthy regime supporters. Interestingly these loyalist militia men are often rural folk not native to the city as were many rebel fighters. Not clear if the rif-medina thing is related to the friction. This often happens in civil wars/revolutions. The people who did the fighting become a menace to public order.
     
  25. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    See post #8501. It isn't just the 'wealthy supporters', like Assad would give a shit at this point anyway.
     
  26. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

  27. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    In FP U.S. Taxpayers Are Helping Bashar Al-Assad in a Strategic City
    My this is confused. US funding food aid that often doesn't get to rebel areas but often gets expensively airdropped to Deir where it helps ensure Assad's bastion in the East holds out.

    At the same time US backed rebels/PKK competing to grab Caliphate territory and stop relief of Deir/restoration of Iranian GLOC to HA/undermine regime legitimacy in the eyes of Eastern loyalists. Not so long ago CENTCOM were accidentally admitting their air was hitting IS to support R+6 operations up Palmyra way. Now they're trying to stop loyalist forces pushing out to the East and rubbing up against their FOBs. All while the (wrong) Iraqis come West to link up with the R+6. There is some talking to the (increasingly hapless) Russians about setting up "Deconfliction Zones" that look more like flash points for a nice big war with Iran. Kerry's hotline to Teheran meanwhile is no longer used as Team Trump doesn't really do much recognisable diplomacy.
     
  28. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Al Monitor Ankara sends reinforcements into northern Syria
    So supposedly the PKK might trade Qamishli's regime held airport for Russian aid in Afrin. Giving the Russians a lever to control Iranian operations in the East. This smells a little fishy to me but some thoughts:
    1. This has R+6 supply to Deir (265kms from the airport) essentially being reliant on PKK collaboration
    2. The Russians are perceived to have insufficient leverage over Iran and therefore the regime at the moment
    3. But Ankara it is thought will do what the Kremlin orders over Afrin
    4. The PKK are not offering their US allies, who seem to be developing an interest in Eastern Syrian real estate, the airport as a prize
    5. How would CENTCOM take the PKK giving Russia basing in their area of influence?
     
  29. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Reuters Hezbollah says future Israel war could draw fighters from Iran, Iraq, elsewhere
    I think the Israelis took that as read. Note the inclusion of Yemen. Not so much evidence of Houthi fighters in Syria so far.
     
  30. CrabbedOne

    CrabbedOne Walking sideways snippily

    On Al Monitor Kurds reaching critical juncture in US partnership
    Lots of options being kept open and sides being played. Also rather an eager jump by some folk to support the formerly demonised Saudis over Qatar. Such ideological agility has served them well in Syria but you can get too clever in these things.
     

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