All hail our saviours: The centrist dad party

[Kaka Tim]

He might, but he's nearly eighty.

As a master of self-deluded arrogance - i dont think that would stop him.

 

[DotCommunist]

He might, but he's nearly eighty.

Owen Smith? Liz Kendall? Andy Burnham? There's no shortage of possible names.

we could play 'guess which ones the vile peado and who else among them knows' with this sdp mk 2

 

[killer b]

He might, but he's nearly eighty.

Owen Smith? Liz Kendall? Andy Burnham? There's no shortage of possible names.

Burnham isn't in parliament or ever going to leave Labour, so that's one out. I doubt Smith or Kendall would be so sure of their majorities (both up 14% under Corbyn - so not a personal vote of confidence) to think having a go outside Labour would work.

That's the calculation all these people will be making - can I hold on to my majority without the Labour brand? In almost all cases, the answer is an obvious no. It's the biggest barrier to a split.

 

[MickiQ]

Hmm, it's not great, but I can't think of anything better.
Mainstream, mainline, centre-forward they all sound crap.

Anyway the new grouping would probably be better served trying to 'take over' the Lib Dems in the same way the Thatcherites took over the Tories and New Labour took over Labour. Rawnsley kind of implies that then shrinks back from it. How exactly they would do that I'm not sure. Presumably one cannot join the Lib Dems today and run for leader tomorrow, but £50 million pounds and a real shot at power might prove too much to resist.

Who is the leader of the Lib Dems was the tie breaker question in the pub quiz a few weeks back and I was the only person who knew it was Vince Cable. they're in a bad way when the limit of their achievements is winning me £20 and a bottle of vino.
The biggest problem for me with any party fishing for votes in the centre is I reckon they will take more off Labour than the Tories and thus ensure that May gets back and is soon replaced with Gove or God forbid Rees-Mogg.
I can't say I'm struck on the idea of Corbyn in No 10 either but it would certainly be better than someone like Mogg.

 

[killer b]

It makes me laugh how all articles positing a new centrist party talk about one of the stumbling blocks being the MPs tribal loyalty to the Labour Party: it's nonsense. In almost all cases it's the MPs need for the block of votes being a member for the Labour party brings that drives this particular 'loyalty'.

 

[butchersapron]

As far as i can see there are no big names associated with this. The SDP had a big impact (but still failed) because it was set up by three senior labour ex-cabinet ministers - Cyril Smith, David Owen and Shirley Williams (there was also some other bloke who nobody remember - the political equivalent of mike from the young ones).
This whole set up looks like they are dangling a big wodge of funding in the hope that Chuka Umuma and minor kinnock jump on board. Cant see it happening. David Owen might be up for another crack at it though.

Most def not cyril smith - it was Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and Bill Rodgers. Smith was not a fan of his liberal party allying with the SDP as the paedo could see his own internal influence diminish significantly when put up against three out of the gang of four, and the similar types that they would be towing along behind them.

I'd argue that the SDP (and successor groups) did succeed for a long period in achieving some of their aims - keeping a core of big-name ex-labour types in parliament and in the public eye whilst establishing a clear alternative route into the same for up and coming non-tories who before would simply have had no real choice but to go through the labour party and the old style union-social-democratic hoops/school with all the compromises and agreements that would involve. That lasted right up until Clegg, Cable etc decided on coalition with the tories since 2010.

Also the fear they induced in large and influential sections of the labour movement as regards adopting and endorsing both trad left and further left policies has also only recently began to be challenged. And that fear led to those sections of the labour movement looking to the EU for protection from thatcherism etc with disastrous results. The support for the shifting of semi-democratic politics onto a technocratic basis with practically no democratic input or participation that this support entailed is something the SDP types were delighted with - see how many of their big hitters over the last 20 years spent their formative political years working for the EU - Clegg the most obvious example.

 

[Kaka Tim]

yes i meant roy jenkins, not cyril smith. an unintended slur on the noble memory of the SDP.

 

[butchersapron]

Last election the labour party made surprising inroads into more affluent southern areas but without taking that many of the seats. That's the only possible areas in which these idiots could take a few hundred votes and have any electoral impact. In labours already worst performing areas and in the most marginal of seats.

 

[Slo-mo]

Burnham isn't in parliament or ever going to leave Labour, so that's one out.

Would the party leader *have* to be a sitting MP? It would obviously help, but a former MP could potentially do it. If you take anyone who's ever had serious ambitions to lead the Labour party and doesn't like the current leader and offer them access to that sort of money they are bound to at least consider it, even if they then decide not to go ahead.

Of course, this is all assuming the potential leader has to come from Labour. And assuming this £50 million is even halfway accurate.

 

[butchersapron]

Would the party leader *have* to be a sitting MP? It would obviously help, but a former MP could potentially do it. If you take anyone who's ever had serious ambitions to lead the Labour party and doesn't like the current leader and offer them access to that sort of money they are bound to at least consider it, even if they then decide not to go ahead.

Of course, this is all assuming the potential leader has to come from Labour. And assuming this £50 million is even halfway accurate.

Burnham joined the party when he was 14. He's not leaving for these well fed goons.

 

[gosub]

Anything above base level of media attention (that comes from standing in enough constituencies), stems from a calculation based on the number of votes in the previous election.....Piss your money away Mr Lovefilm you can't get a credible party off the ground in under two Parliamentary terms

 

[The39thStep]

He might, but he's nearly eighty.

Owen Smith? Liz Kendall? Andy Burnham? There's no shortage of possible names.

Burnham is a Labour loyalist wedded to Manchester Labour.

 

[killer b]

Would the party leader *have* to be a sitting MP? It would obviously help, but a former MP could potentially do it. If you take anyone who's ever had serious ambitions to lead the Labour party and doesn't like the current leader and offer them access to that sort of money they are bound to at least consider it, even if they then decide not to go ahead.

I guess, but not Burnham.

 

[killer b]

I know this is all just conjecture anyway, but can we try to ground it in some version of reality?

 

[Idris2002]

I know this is all just conjecture anyway, but can we try to ground it in some version of reality?

Reality's alright for a holiday, but I wouldn't want to live there.

Question: are AstroTurf parties like this already obsolete? The proof-of-concept was Forza Italia, but that was 25 years ago, and in a very different media environment. Can this Potemkin Party make any sort of showing in the social media age?

 

[kabbes]

Reality's alright for a holiday, but I wouldn't want to live there.

Question: are AstroTurf parties like this already obsolete? The proof-of-concept was Forza Italia, but that was 25 years ago, and in a very different media environment. Can this Potemkin Party make any sort of showing in the social media age?

You’re asking if new neoliberal parties like, to pick a random example, En Marche!, can have any success in this day and age?

I’m going to say... yes.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Who is the leader of the Lib Dems was the tie breaker question in the pub quiz a few weeks back and I was the only person who knew it was Vince Cable. they're in a bad way when the limit of their achievements is winning me £20 and a bottle of vino.

That seriously made me laugh.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Interesting where and by who this is being floated.

Even more interesting would be the likely policy platform:

Pro European
Socially liberal
Economically signed up to neo liberalism but with concerns about some on its worst excesses
Triangulation on policy issues
Indistinguishable on foreign policy to the Tories.
Professional politics

Where is the constituency for these ideas outside of the chattering class? Even Blair recognised that working class tribal loyalty to labour was a prerequisite for victory and that despite the anti working class nature of the approach ‘they had nowhere else to go’ politically.

 

[likesfish]

if you had £50 million you could make a real diffrence if you actually had £50 million to spend

 

[YouSir]

Interesting where and by who this is being floated.

Even more interesting would be the likely policy platform:

Pro European
Socially liberal
Economically signed up to neo liberalism but with concerns about some on its worst excesses
Triangulation on policy issues
Indistinguishable on foreign policy to the Tories.
Professional politics

Where is the constituency for these ideas outside of the chattering class? Even Blair recognised that working class tribal loyalty to labour was a prerequisite for victory and that despite the anti working class nature of the approach ‘they had nowhere else to go’ politically.

That is the constituency, the 'chattering class'. I know social media is an unreliable indicator of anything but look at certain politicians and journalists and how they interact. They're absolutely convinced that they are representative of some imagined majority of people just like them. It's an article of faith, or divine right rather. They straight up don't understand that they're in a minority.

Same shows in the Labour Party, the neoliberal, Blairite old guard have always been reticent about new members, they refuse to believe that they represent anyone or anything in society. That Left Wing members now outnumber them has to be a fiendish mistake soon to be rectified by that same silent, sensible majority that they belong to and who for reasons unknown are just a bit reluctant to talk up. Except in rants alongside #FBPE tags.

 

[Slo-mo]

Interesting where and by who this is being floated.

Even more interesting would be the likely policy platform:

Pro European

The Observer article says "Tory hard Brexit has alienated some on that party’s modernising wing. The Lib Dems have been unable to take advantage of the polarisation." ....and then goes on to say
..... "A source said some Brexit supporters are involved."

Which begs the question- what, apart from disillusionment with the big two parties, are these backers going to have in common?

 

[Idris2002]

You’re asking if new neoliberal parties like, to pick a random example, En Marche!, can have any success in this day and age?

I’m going to say... yes.

I should have thought of En Marche!, but isn't it only made possible by the peculiar nature of both the French crisis, and of the Fifth Republic?

 

[Slo-mo]

I should have thought of En Marche!, but isn't it only made possible by the peculiar nature of both the French crisis, and of the Fifth Republic?

We might be about to find out the answer to that question...

 

[killer b]

Sure sure. this defo isn't just more gobbing off. A new centrist party is immanent, and this time it won't be just some newspaper columnists wank fantasies.

 

[The39thStep]

Hopefully they will sign up Lord Adonis, Terry Christian and Nick Cohen

 

[Idris2002]

We might be about to find out the answer to that question...

"Irresistible force meets immovable object" - film at 11.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

That is the constituency, the 'chattering class'. I know social media is an unreliable indicator of anything but look at certain politicians and journalists and how they interact. They're absolutely convinced that they are representative of some imagined majority of people just like them. It's an article of faith, or divine right rather. They straight up don't understand that they're in a minority.

Bar an almost obsessive focus on Europe and remain there is nothing there.

It’s the political equivalent of an M People single and a Hugh Grant rom-com wrapped in a European flag. You can almost whiff the nostalgia for a period where its proponents had agency

 

[kabbes]

I should have thought of En Marche!, but isn't it only made possible by the peculiar nature of both the French crisis, and of the Fifth Republic?

I’m going to get all gnomic and say that everything that happens, happens because of the peculiar nature of its times and circumstances. But if that stops you pointing at instances of success, it also stops you illustrating via situations of failure.

 

[mauvais]

They need to go one up on En Marche! with the punctuation IMO. How about Mainstream??

I've run the algorithms and the closest equivalent in the British language seems to come out as, 'Westward Ho!'

 

[Sprocket.]

Bon Marche more likely!