Afghanistan, what now?

[dylans]

There would be an immediate civil war with the Taliban and Al Quaida against the rest, a bloodbath and then they would be back as they were at the time of 9/11 a taliban state sponsoring Al Quaida terrorism.

Do we really want that? I don't!

"We are there now. If we leave there will be a bloodbath" has been used to justify the continuation of virtually every war, invasion and occupation in the history of modern warfare.

It was used in Vietnam, In Ireland, In Korea, In Greece and Malaya after WWII. It was used by the British colonialists in Sudan and India and by the French in South East Asia and Algeria. It is not only a cynical excuse, It is a self fulfilling prophecy because it is precisely occupation and foreign interference that creates the conditions for conflict in the first place.

Every single foreign army that has ever stepped foot in Afganistan has been destroyed.The last British force there was wiped out to the last man. The Russians learned that too. Obama is making a very foolish mistake by increasing the troop commitment there.

 

[weltweit]

... Obama is making a very foolish mistake by increasing the troop commitment there.

My understanding was that he was vacillating about it and has not made a decision yet.

Can the Afghan army and police be strengthenned enough to hold the country if / when we pull out? can our troops focus on Al Quaida and not the Taliban? How long will the above take? How many years and how many lives?

 

[yield]

Every single foreign army that has ever stepped foot in Afganistan has been destroyed.The last British force there was wiped out to the last man.

That isn't true is it? There were two Anglo-Afghan Wars after the Massacre of Elphinstone's Army

 

[weltweit]

But it is true that the Afghans have been at war for generations and know what they are doing.

 

[BLT]

But it is true that the Afghans have been at war for generations and know what they are doing.

Does not compute.

A fragmented tribal society, fraught with linguistic and religious differences. Socially conservative, living in isolated valleys in bleak mountainous terrain with few natural resources, surrounded by unstable neighbours who are usually at war with each other. Every man has a rifle and knows how to use it. Good at fighting? Damn right they are!

But enough about Switzerland, this thread is about Afghanistan. And in Afghanistan their sum achievements are to destroy everything of value within reach while provoking regular invasions which destroy everything of no value which remains. This does not equal success, at war or anything else.

 

[weltweit]

... But enough about Switzerland, ...

Very good

My point though is that the Afghans have plenty of experience resisting occupation and making the most of their mountainous terrain.

You would not dispute that, would you?

 

[Ralph Masters]

The Americans could probably hold on to their airbases in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be their most practical option. Supporting a puppet regime hasn't enjoyed much success, the sacrifice made by the US command has to be worth some small globally strategic payback.

 

[weltweit]

Can America really leave Afghanistan without killing or capturing Osama Bin Laden?

 

[Ralph Masters]

keep a couple of bases, just in case he turns up??????

 

[weltweit]

If America leave Afghanistan and the Pakistanis keep up pressure on their side I would say there is a quite likely chance that he will show up again in Afghanistan.

 

[BLT]

Personally, I think our point has been made, and there is little left to be gained by staying on. If whatever ugly regimes do emerge in the region decide to train terrorists then they know what to expect - more decades of resisting invaders (intent on destruction next time, not nation building), whilst the Afghans make the most of their mountain terrain, rather than getting on with life.

 

[weltweit]

I don't think we will leave until the Afghan army is full and trained. (and the police also).

 

[BLT]

It's possible, but that's going to take a lot more time and money, and I don't see it happening myself.

 

[weltweit]

Dutch in Afghanistan: 30 dead, 200 injured

The Dutch will leave in 2010 whether there is a country to replace them or not.

 

[newharper]

Interesting analysis by William R. Polk of Obama's options.

http://www.juancole.com/

 

[weltweit]

Interesting analysis by William R. Polk of Obama's options.

http://www.juancole.com/

Yes, interesting, though I only got about a 1/4 way though before it crashed my browser.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

“There is no piece of land in Afghanistan,” he said, “that has not been occupied by one of or soldiers at some time or another. Nevertheless, much of the territory stays in the hands of the terrorists. We control the provincial centers, but we cannot maintain political control over the territory we seize . . . Without a lot more men, this war will continue for a very, very long time.”

.

 

[weltweit]

One thing that amazed me about that article, was that it said 40 percent of the US troops who were in Gulf War 1 are now on disability benefits of some kind.

That is a very big percentage and that war was very short.

 

[newharper]

One thing that amazed me about that article, was that it said 40 percent of the US troops who were in Gulf War 1 are now on disability benefits of some kind.

That is a very big percentage and that war was very short.

Yeah, staggering. The ongoing costs of the last 8 years are going to be huge. The Second Battle of Fallujah alone was described as

The U.S. military called it "some of the heaviest urban combat U.S. Marines have been involved in since the Battle of Huế City in Vietnam in 1968

 

[newharper]

double post

 

[newharper]

Guess how surprised everyone is about corruption.

Old news I know, but good article.

On the Taliban diplomat's right sat his interpreter, Ahmad Rateb Popal,

But Popal was more than just a former mujahedeen. In 1988, a year before the Soviets fled Afghanistan, Popal had been charged in the United States with conspiring to import more than a kilo of heroin. Court records show he was released from prison in 1997.

Flash forward to 2009, and Afghanistan is ruled by Popal's cousin President Hamid Karzai. Popal has cut his huge beard down to a neatly trimmed one and has become an immensely wealthy businessman, along with his brother Rashid Popal, who in a separate case pleaded guilty to a heroin charge in 1996 in Brooklyn. The Popal brothers control the huge Watan Group in Afghanistan, a consortium engaged in telecommunications, logistics and, most important, security. Watan Risk Management, the Popals' private military arm, is one of the few dozen private security companies in Afghanistan. One of Watan's enterprises, key to the war effort, is protecting convoys of Afghan trucks heading from Kabul to Kandahar, carrying American supplies.

Two years ago, a top Afghan security official told me, Afghanistan's intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security, had alerted the American military to the problem. The NDS delivered what I'm told are "very detailed" reports to the Americans explaining how the Taliban are profiting from protecting convoys of US supplies.

The Afghan intelligence service even offered a solution: what if the United States were to take the tens of millions paid to security contractors and instead set up a dedicated and professional convoy support unit to guard its logistics lines? The suggestion went nowhere.

The bizarre fact is that the practice of buying the Taliban's protection is not a secret. I asked Col. David Haight, who commands the Third Brigade of the Tenth Mountain Division, about it. After all, part of Highway 1 runs through his area of operations. What did he think about security companies paying off insurgents? "The American soldier in me is repulsed by it," he said in an interview in his office at FOB Shank in Logar Province. "But I know that it is what it is: essentially paying the enemy, saying, 'Hey, don't hassle me.' I don't like it, but it is what it is."

As a military official in Kabul explained contracting in Afghanistan overall, "We understand that across the board 10 percent to 20 percent goes to the insurgents. My intel guy would say it is closer to 10 percent. Generally it is happening in logistics."

You can understand why the military on the ground want to minimise losses, but overall this just seems like business as usual.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091130/roston

 

[weltweit]

I do find it a bit bizzare that we are paying them not to attack us!

Can we pay them to give over Osama Bin laden also?
I bet that line is being tried, hasn't he got a price on his head?

 

[newharper]

To give the numbers relevance.

At first the contract was large but not gargantuan. And then that suddenly changed, like an immense garden coming into bloom. Over the summer, citing the coming "surge" and a new doctrine, "Money as a Weapons System," the US military expanded the contract 600 percent for NCL and the five other companies. The contract documentation warns of dire consequences if more is not spent: "service members will not get food, water, equipment, and ammunition they require." Each of the military's six trucking contracts was bumped up to $360 million, or a total of nearly $2.2 billion. Put it in this perspective: this single two-year effort to hire Afghan trucks and truckers was worth 10 percent of the annual Afghan gross domestic product. NCL, the firm run by the defense minister's well-connected son, had struck pure contracting gold.

ibid

 

[butchersapron]

I do find it a bit bizzare that we are paying them not to attack us!

Can we pay them to give over Osama Bin laden also?
I bet that line is being tried, hasn't he got a price on his head?

That 'us' covers so many things. I mean...us! Why?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Just to post this again

"What Do Afghans Want?"

The best piece I've read on the issue recently.

http://www.j-n-v.org/AW_briefings/JNV_briefing120_What_Do_Afghans_Want.htm

 

[weltweit]

4,000 German Troops in Afghanistan
3rd largest commitment after USA & Britain.

 

[weltweit]

Apparently Obama is about to announce 30,000 more American troops for Afghanistan.

 

[weltweit]

Was president Obama wrong to indicate that the troops will start to leave in 18 months?

It seems to send a signal to the Taliban.

Can he and we achieve in 18 months what we have so far failed to do in 8 years?

 

[Fuchs66]

The USSR could not succeed there with 5 times the troops that NATO have

If you've ever worked with the Russian military you'd know the reason for this

4,000 German Troops in Afghanistan
3rd largest commitment after USA & Britain.

and the Bundeswehr (with the possible exception of the KSK, but from what I've heard they aren't exactly trusted by more experienced special forces and are given only peripheral roles in operations) based in relatively peaceful areas spends its time sat in bases, ventures out very rarely and pays off any potential local trouble makers. Waste of time and money

 

[Gibeon]

Was president Obama wrong to indicate that the troops will start to leave in 18 months?

It seems to send a signal to the Taliban.

It could also be argued that this indication will help to quell Afghan resentment against the occupation. However, given that there will actually be an increased troop presence this is unlikely to be the result.

There is a committed, idealistic Taliban core but the majority of insurgents are driven to fight for other reasons. They become affiliated with the Taliban because they are the most prominent group who have always opposed the NATO occupation and the current government.

For several years at first the NATO occupation was peaceful. A new regime with promises of peace and development after decades of war and destruction was welcomed. This development didn’t occur because of waste and corruption. Unemployment and governmental corruption are the two biggest factors which are swelling the insurgency according to a recent Oxfam poll. There are many other grievances too. Without a realistic plan to alleviate these problems the insurgency will surely continue.

Can he and we achieve in 18 months what we have so far failed to do in 8 years?

I don’t believe that the situation will be any better at that time. All the focus in Obama's Afghan plan is related to ‘counter-insurgency’. The problems of poverty and corruption are not given enough attention.