Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

A Q to scientists: Potential Hazards of the Hydrogen Economy

Look up the difference between fusion and fission :p
I'm aware of the differences (though far from an expert in the field of fission), but it's fairly common to lump them together under the term nuclear power, and IMO the term 'nuclear industry' encompasses both.

I was also referring to the fact that he works for the UKAEA, an organisation with a very poor history for impartiality when it comes to research regarding the renewable energy sector, so forgive me for being sceptical when a representative of the UKAEA appears to dismiss all currently economically viable renewable energy technologies in favour of nuclear power and a long term potential for fusion and solar. It fits a fairly obvious pattern, and whether he's aware of it or not, it's likely that his view of the other renewables is coloured by the long term thinking and (on occasion deliberately) biased research of the organisation he works for.

And yes, people who work in the industry generally know lots about the global status of resources. And I work in the solar industry and everyone in it thinks the same, the best solar cells are only ~10% efficient in the lab. But for them to be a realistic alternative a manufactured cell would have to be ~25%.
everyone in the solar industry thinks that all the other renewables are drops in the ocean and unreliable, with small niche market potential?

are you UK based?

if so you'll no doubt have noticed the variability of solar radiation in this country...

I had actually initially assumed you / he were talking about the potential for concentrated solar thermal in arid regions combined with long distance HVDC grids to transmit the power as outlined in the desertec proposal. It looks like you're talking about solar PV, in which case you really ought to think about the wisdom in dismissing other renewables based on their variability considering how poorly solar in this country matches with the countries annual and daily energy demand distribution. UK based Solar PV IMO has the potential to be an important part of this countries energy mix, and there are niches such as office buildings and schools where the supply and demand are better matched, but it really would only work on a bigger scale as part of a mix of renewables with substantial additional storage / reserve capacity (eg pump storage), and/or dynamic demand management to account for the variability in the supply.

If everyone in the solar PV industry really did think like you seem to be indicating, then the industry's got some serious problems it should think about addressing, one of which being who it's getting into bed with and what their agenda might actually be.

btw all this talk from the nuclear lobby of the problems associated with the variability of renewables is a load of disingenuous cock. An electricity mix containing high levels of nuclear also has major problems due to it's inability to respond to demand fluctuations. France has had to do a hell of a lot of demand management to flatten out the daily demand curve over a period of decades so that it's night time electricity usage is much closer to it's peak daytime usage than our currently is. France also benefits from being able to export it's nuclear to surrounding countries when supply excedes demand in France and they can't turn any more reactors off, an option that wouldn't be available if everyone else in surrounding countries also had large amounts of nuclear in the mix.

Also worth thinking that the move to nuclear in the 60's and 70's meant they had to build the 3 gigawatts (ish) of pump storage we have in this country to use the excess nuclear generated at times of low demand, and help meet demand at peak times. If it was ok for the country to pay for these huge civil engineering projects in the 70's and early 80's for nuclear, why's it not ok for us to take the measure now that are necessary to enable the country to work with a much higher levels of renewable energy supply, and the largely predictable increased levels of supply side variability that would come with it?



You seem to have jumped the gun without even hearing him speak. You can watch it on imperials website, http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/media/onlinelectures
possibly, I was going off your summary, but I'll take a look if I can get it to download.


They are all drops in the ocean and unreliable for our energy needs. Solar, nuclear and fusion are the only means we know of that will supply us sufficiantly. There potential is still small and for niche markets. http://www.energysustained.com/energy_resources.htm Is a good website to start from. http://www.undp.org/energy/docs/WEAOU_part_II.pdf
I'm not quite sure how much use I'll make of information from websites who's main data is from 2001, 1999, 2003, and 2004 being the most recent.... btw I'm not actually a complete novice in this field;)

also are you talking about this from a global or national perspective? I'll happily accept that PV is potentially much more relevant on a long term global perspective, though in reality it may well end up being largescale concentrated solar thermal that becomes the major global solar player... if we're talking globally though then if large proportions of the world goes for a high level of nuclear then there will be huge supply problems, fuel price hikes, major cost overruns from building the things due to lack of available expertise and equipment, and the current estimate of 80 years or so supply of uranium would be cut drastically meaning that pretty much at the end of the lifetime of this proposed next generation of nuclear plants we'd then be in the same situation we're in now, but with less options available to help ease the transition to whatever plan c is.



Tarring everyone with the same brush and irrellivant to Smith and the debate at hand.
sorry but I'll call it like I see it - he's parroting the nuclear industries current line on renewables, and works in a top level job for the UKAEA. Whether he's knowingly parroting their lies, or has swallowed the company line and actually believes it himself I'm not sure.

Bottom line, I'll defer to his knowledge on nuclear fusion no problem, but when it comes to assessing the potential of the range of renewable energy technologies I doubt he's got much useful to add to the debate.
 
I'm aware of the differences (though far from an expert in the field of fission), but it's fairly common to lump them together under the term nuclear power, and IMO the term 'nuclear industry' encompasses both.

...

sorry but I'll call it like I see it - he's parroting the nuclear industries current line on renewables, and works in a top level job for the UKAEA. Whether he's knowingly parroting their lies, or has swallowed the company line and actually believes it himself I'm not sure.

Bottom line, I'll defer to his knowledge on nuclear fusion no problem, but when it comes to assessing the potential of the range of renewable energy technologies I doubt he's got much useful to add to the debate.

The point being that although they are the same industry the practical difference between the two is massive, fusion produces nonradioactive waste and uses material we have in abundance. The problem is that it has been underinvested so hasn't gotten anywhere. If you watch his lecture he is a big supporter of solar and discusses all the alternatives, callously defaming his opinion because he has a specialisation is obtuse and unconstructive. There has been greater cross discipline discussion in the industry as people understand we need a range of options. And most data between 2000 and now is still considered valid as there hasn't been any change in the industries, espeically renewables, since Bush has been in power.


everyone in the solar industry thinks that all the other renewables are drops in the ocean and unreliable, with small niche market potential?

are you UK based?

if so you'll no doubt have noticed the variability of solar radiation in this country...

I had actually initially assumed you / he were talking about the potential for concentrated solar thermal in arid regions combined with long distance HVDC grids to transmit the power as outlined in the desertec proposal. It looks like you're talking about solar PV, in which case you really ought to think about the wisdom in dismissing other renewables based on their variability considering how poorly solar in this country matches with the countries annual and daily energy demand distribution. UK based Solar PV IMO has the potential to be an important part of this countries energy mix, and there are niches such as office buildings and schools where the supply and demand are better matched, but it really would only work on a bigger scale as part of a mix of renewables with substantial additional storage / reserve capacity (eg pump storage), and/or dynamic demand management to account for the variability in the supply.

If everyone in the solar PV industry really did think like you seem to be indicating, then the industry's got some serious problems it should think about addressing, one of which being who it's getting into bed with and what their agenda might actually be.

Wind and hydro fall in the lack of suitable places to place them and their unpredicability. Solar is the only renewable that produces enough power but advances in the tech and the HVDC network coming out of solar farms in the suitable locations wont be fast coming. Here are some good reports on solar
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan
http://www.pnas.org/content/103/43/15729.full
http://www.alliedsolar.ie/tubes.html
forgoneenergytreehuggermar08-1366-solar-003.jpg


and this gives a good overview of all the alternatives
http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/ser2007_final_online_version_1.pdf
http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/files/SEU_rpt.pdf
 
The point being that although they are the same industry the practical difference between the two is massive, fusion produces nonradioactive waste and uses material we have in abundance. The problem is that it has been underinvested so hasn't gotten anywhere.
like I say, I understand the difference between the two
If you watch his lecture he is a big supporter of solar and discusses all the alternatives, callously defaming his opinion because he has a specialisation is obtuse and unconstructive. There has been greater cross discipline discussion in the industry as people understand we need a range of options.
I've no problem listening to the opinions of eminent scientists on areas outside of their specialism, but when their opinion differs to the opinions of experts in those fields, and the experience on the ground, and the reports of numerous governmental, non-governmental, scientific and industry bodies, then I'll follow the data and the experts in the field.

That's my first point, my second point being that he heads the UK and european research into fusion, and is therefore competing directly with renewables for research funding, so can hardly be considered to be an unbiased witness. He also works for the UKAEA, which has a long track record of working actively to prevent cost effective renewables from entering the marketplace in any meaningful way, and is parroting the line held by the nuclear lobby for the last 15 years or so to damage the public perception of renewables and strengthen the perception of nuclear in order to build support for a new generation of nuclear power. So forgive me for being sceptical.
And most data between 2000 and now is still considered valid as there hasn't been any change in the industries, espeically renewables, since Bush has been in power.
er what?

you're making claims about the ability of any renewables other than solar to be anything other than niche suppliers of power, then linking to a source that puts the total global installed wind power capacity at less than a quarter of what it actually now is, and you consider that to be valid?

does this look like no change since 2001 to you?

totalcapacity2007_s.jpg


Wind and hydro fall in the lack of suitable places to place them and their unpredicability. Solar is the only renewable that produces enough power but advances in the tech and the HVDC network coming out of solar farms in the suitable locations wont be fast coming. Here are some good reports on solar
it's not an either or option, there is also an option marked 'all of the above', which is the correct option.

solar is undoubtedly going to be the preferred option in areas of the world with high levels of sunlight, and large areas of arid land where the demand curve is more closely matched to the available solar as much of the energy is used in air conditioning (for pv), and concentrated solar thermal would allow for stored heat to deliver power pretty much continuously.

In the UK however we have the largest amount of wind, wave, tidal and tidal stream potential in europe, as well as a useful amount of installed large scale hydro, and 3gw existing pump storage, so dismissing these technologies as being niche technologies is utterly wrong in the UK context. It's also wrong in the global context, and bears no relation to the reality of the situation on the ground in many countries where wind, hydro, geothermal, tidal, tidal stream or biomass have larger realisable potential than solar, eg Norway, Iceland, Russia, Canada, China, Germany etc.

***

a quick comparison of nuclear and renewables current and potential 2030 generating capacity...

nuclear
Current global capacity 370 GW, with 2608 TWh supplied in 2007, 16% of the world's electricity

2030 estimate (IAEA)470 to 750 GW installed capacity or around 3300-5300 TWh

Renewables
Renewables current global installed generating capacity is now over 1000 GW (including hydro), around 3500 TWh supplied in 2007, which amounts to roughly 18.4% of the worlds electricity generation.

The upper estimate (given sufficient funding) for potential renewables generation from the World Renewable Energy Council's Renewable Energy Outlook 2030 is 15000 TWh annual electricity supply from all renewables, equivalent to pretty much the entire current annual global electricity consumption. It's lower estimate (given lower levels of funding) is for 8500 TWh supplied per year by 2030.

so the WREC lower estimate for renewables to be able to supply 3 times the amount currently supplied by nuclear, and around 60% more than the IAEA's upper estimate for the potential amount of electricity nuclear could supply in 2030. Their upper estimate is for renewables to be able to supply 3 times the UAEA's upper estimate for 2030.

These figures include solar PV and concentrated solar thermal at levels of roughly 2000 TWh for the upper estimate, and 1000 TWh for the lower estimate. They are also based on investment that could go to new nuclear instead being spent on new renewable capacity, along with an increasing investment in renewables to 2030... essentially if the money's put into renewables then they have the capacity to deliver more electricity generation capacity than nuclear.

***

from the figures above, I think it's fairly clear the prof is talking bollocks as I said earlier.

you may also want to have a look at the Renewables 2007 Global Status Report to get some up to date figures for an industry that is changing incredibly rapidly.

btw I'm a full supporter of solar PV and concentrated solar thermal, as important parts of the mix of renewable energy technologies that can potentially generate all the energy we need, and am fairly upto date with developments in those fields (you'll probably have more specialist knowledge of some of the PV stuff). What I have a problem with is the false arguement that nuclear could or should be seen as a better medium term energy option than renewables, or that renewables aren't capable of filling the supply gap as older power fossil fuel and nuclear stations go off line. It's all a question of funding, and the nuclear lobby have done an amazing job of persuading people that they should be the ones who get the funding... as I said before, don't fall for their lies again.
 
From RapidFind forum...

Alternative energy books colection 886 MB


renewconsumption2007aey3.png



This is collection of books i find on the net over the years of researching, about renewable energy sources and practical guides for using them. Various books for beginners, advanced and engineers.
More than 1GB of data splited in parts like: solar, wind, water, fuels, hardware, home construction etc.
Many of them i find on net but sometimes is painfull to download from some sites so i put them together and now you can just delete what you don't need.
Credit goes to many uploaders from all over.....


In the past, renewable energy has generally been more expensive to use than fossil fuels.
The production and use of renewable fuels has grown more quickly in recent years due to higher prices for oil and natural gas. The use of renewable fuels is expected to continue to grow over the next 30 years.

http://rapidshare.com/files/157046313/wnwpower.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/150676079/SOLAR_IN_PRACTICE.part1.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/150770188/SOLAR_IN_PRACTICE.part2.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/151314672/Renewable_based_technologies.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/152238494/COOKING_SOMETHING.part1.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/152251539/COOKING_SOMETHING.part2.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/152301435/HOME_CONSTRUCTION.part1.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/152381395/HOME_CONSTRUCTION.part2.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/153187692/Solar_2.part1.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/153539458/Solar_2.part2.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/153757774/Solar_3.part1.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/153801942/Solar_3.part2.rar
http://rapidshare.com/files/153807706/Solar_3.part3.rar

and here is second part:

http://www.rapidfind.org/upload/showthread.php?t=120655
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

enjoy......
 
Back
Top Bottom