A 15 year recession?

[darkfibre]

We can't progress by breaking the World up into small units

That rather depends on what you define as 'progress'.

If we are to progress towards any sort of resilient or sustainable mode, I'd argue that it's essential that we re-localise.

Dimitri Orlov had some relevant and interesting things to day regarding 'collapse' that kind of echo elbows' comments.

 

[free spirit]

yes and no.

It would help if our own out going pipelines were at more than about 10% capacity which they are present....

we could weather this storm if we started shipping oil again...

eh?

how do you mean 'if we start shipping oil again' or 'if our outgoing pipelines were at more than 10% capacity'?

sounds like you're saying we'd be fine if we could only export more to balance the imports... if that's what you meant then you've missed the point that our production levels have now dropped below our consumption levels, and will be dropping further behind rapidly over the next 5 years. This is the reason we'll be spending 10% of our GDP on oil and gas imports in 5 years time.

Actually 10%'s probably a bit hopefull as it's based on current price levels, and the recent experience of the UK trying and failing to buy in Liquified Natural Gas on the world markets would be a good indication that the price of imported gas is likely to be significantly higher than current levels.

eta - Apologies if I've misunderstood what you were saying btw

 

[soulman]

I would look for something far more democratic than present state set ups. But small scale co-ops are an irrelevance when it comes to World economy.

My earlier post centered on the dillemmas facing supporters of capitalism, and the very real possibility that we are heading for a major slump that will lead to panic and desperation and consequences for most of us that are too awful to contemplate. My desire for a radical alternative that ditches the priorities of capitalist production - competition and profit for the few - is not married to a desire for a strong centrist state.

The idea that socialism is all about undemocratic centralised state dictatorships has to be junked. We need democratic planning on the basis of need not profit on a world-wide scale with both local democratic structures and local co-operative production and international democratic structures and social planning. 21st Century socialism. But unless we challenge the priorities of capitalism now, and build a movement that can resist the attempts to make the majority sacrifice and pay to bail out the rich, talk of what replaces capitalism is just hot air.

I think people building an alternative for themselves is far more likely to be successful than something imposed centrally. You disregard cooperatives, or collectives, or whatever alternative people choose as being small scale. Yet that's the point. They are created by people to meet their needs now and as an alternative form of distribution that can weather the storms ahead.

 

[Barking_Mad]

"The shining hope for a revolution in human consciousness lies in the actions of everyday people" - not political and economic systems imposed from above.

 

[gracious]

the market for Chinese goods freezes up

do you know how many people there are in china?

 

[DotCommunist]

do you know how many people there are in china?

what has that to do with markets? Vast swathes of the country are subsistence farmers. The Urban centers are small in proportion to the population size, many cannot afford the goods produced in their own country. They'd have to stimulate a much larger internal market.

 

[elbows]

I think people building an alternative for themselves is far more likely to be successful than something imposed centrally. You disregard cooperatives, or collectives, or whatever alternative people choose as being small scale. Yet that's the point. They are created by people to meet their needs now and as an alternative form of distribution that can weather the storms ahead.

But that assumes that powerful central forces dont try to mess it up. Even though I expect a fairly rapid decay of the existing system, I dont see a power vacuum opening up to the extent that opportunity knocks so hard.

Small scale & local is more sane & sustainable in some ways, but there are big questions about whether it can sustain anything like the number of people we have now. I would really like to know if a relatively local area could feed all the people that live locally to me.

 

[elbows]

what has that to do with markets? Vast swathes of the country are subsistence farmers. The Urban centers are small in proportion to the population size, many cannot afford the goods produced in their own country. They'd have to stimulate a much larger internal market.

Yeah I dont think their middle class is very large, and they have pesky old-fashioned ideas about saving money and not getting into massive debt, although I think they were starting to get into consumption culture more recently.

I read something a week or 2 back about the train network experiencing much heavier passenger numbers from one region due to the scale of job-losses.

Those who got carried away with beliefs about just how far the decoupling of economies like China from the USA, have mostly realised it was nowhere near yet. If there had been another decade or so of overheated consumption from the West then maybe China would of been in the position some are suggesting, but thats not how the timing has ended up. Still it will be very interesting to see what China does with its large pot of savings, whether they are able to use it to plot a different route to the top, or whether they stagnate.

 

[Prince Rhyus]

Which reminds me, how's our left list lovely Tansy Hoskins getting on these days?

 

[soulman]

But that assumes that powerful central forces dont try to mess it up. Even though I expect a fairly rapid decay of the existing system, I dont see a power vacuum opening up to the extent that opportunity knocks so hard.

Small scale & local is more sane & sustainable in some ways, but there are big questions about whether it can sustain anything like the number of people we have now. I would really like to know if a relatively local area could feed all the people that live locally to me.

Could you feed yourself?

 

[soulman]

Sorry that sounds a bit nasty doesn't it. It's not meant to be tho. I think the individual is the basis of any form of sustainable society. From that comes a meeting of individuals who realise they need to work together. From that a meeting of communities, and so on...

 

[elbows]

The thing is Im really into that stuff, its just I sometimes have some trouble imagining it scaling up. I know I can grow some of the food I need to survive, but not convinced its enough. And I cant just blot out everyone else and the systems that already exist, and think they wont have a dramatic effect on how sustainable a sane, local, and relatively primitive by todays standards system would be.

I did have a bit of a shock when I frequented a bird flu forum some years back, and many of the US posters ideas of survival was making sure they had enough weapons & ammunition to keep everyone else away from their stash. As over the top as their stance was, its an aspect of decline not to be completely ignored.

A lot will come down to how the state, media & business treat such a relocalisation agenda if it starts to build momentum, let alone how the masses will handle it. We could have a scenario where the majority want such things, and the state or business tries to mess with it, or we could have the opposite, where the state fails to get a lot of the population to accept what is happening.

Im also fond of reminding myself that if I was older, I could of had much the same opinions about the near future, back in the 1970's, and have ended up waiting a rather long time for the big collapse to occur. We might stumble through the next few decades without radical change, the burden or shortfalls of stuff may be felt with full horror in some places whilst other countries get off more lightly with a downturn that more closely resembles recessions of the past than last waltz for everything as we know it.

Also a tragedy that the last generation that were more directly connected to reality, those whose needs for consumption had to be met through make do & mend far more than what we've seen since the 60's, have been reaching the end of their lives just when those times may be returning.

 

[Dr Jon]

... Add a few more mountains to that load (e.g. 'the mountain of man-made environmental disaster') and you will see some interesting times indeed in the dear old PRC. . .

Have you seen "Manufactured Landscapes"? Theres a shot in there showing how an entire mountain has been quarried away and is just a massive hole in the ground; also a barren landscape of smouldering slag heaps extending as far as the eye can see.
Quite an eye opener...

 

[butchersapron]

Going back to the original point, i was listening to a Doug Henwood radio show over the weekend and he suggested a 10 year recssesion was possible - this was from about 2 months ago though.

 

[Groucho]

do you know how many people there are in china?

It was quite clear that my reference was to the market for Chinese exports.

 

[david dissadent]

How are people working out a "15 year" recession. What factors are they counting in and what do they mean by 'recession'. The links in the OP were a bit vague.

 

[kyser_soze]

Yeah I dont think their middle class is very large,

Yeah, only about 300 million people...

Sorry that sounds a bit nasty doesn't it. It's not meant to be tho. I think the individual is the basis of any form of sustainable society. From that comes a meeting of individuals who realise they need to work together. From that a meeting of communities, and so on...

There are quite a few things we disagree on, but not this^^^

 

[nino_savatte]

Can't count on the government to do anything remotely useful. They work for the people who got us in this mess, not for us.

Constructive responses will have to be 'bottom up' and if they work it'll probably be despite governments rather than being enabled by them.

The State - 'Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't expect anything of them.'

Exactly, the government is already talking of wanting people to "spend more" and they are providing tax and interest rate cuts for this very reason. But isn't this what led us to this position in the first place?

 

[Dr Jon]

Exactly, the government is already talking of wanting people to "spend more" and they are providing tax and interest rate cuts for this very reason. But isn't this what led us to this position in the first place?

The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died. There will be pressure from nearly every quarter to keep it hooked up to the costly life support machines even though it is dead. A different economy is waiting to be born, but it is nothing like the one that has died. The economy-to-come is one of rigor and austerity. It is not the kind of thing that a nation of overfed clowns is used to. Do we even have a prayer of getting to it, or are we going to squander our dwindling resources on life support for something that is already dead?

link

 

[GarfieldLeChat]

eh?

how do you mean 'if we start shipping oil again' or 'if our outgoing pipelines were at more than 10% capacity'?

sounds like you're saying we'd be fine if we could only export more to balance the imports... if that's what you meant then you've missed the point that our production levels have now dropped below our consumption levels, and will be dropping further behind rapidly over the next 5 years. This is the reason we'll be spending 10% of our GDP on oil and gas imports in 5 years time.

Actually 10%'s probably a bit hopefull as it's based on current price levels, and the recent experience of the UK trying and failing to buy in Liquified Natural Gas on the world markets would be a good indication that the price of imported gas is likely to be significantly higher than current levels.

eta - Apologies if I've misunderstood what you were saying btw

the point being is that we could if it were profitable start producing again. they cut the flow out of the UK becuase it was cheaper to pull the oil half way accross the world in tankers.... that's probably no longer the case but instead of increasing our production again they've left it at importation levels to make some more cash...

 

[elbows]

the point being is that we could if it were profitable start producing again. they cut the flow out of the UK becuase it was cheaper to pull the oil half way accross the world in tankers.... that's probably no longer the case but instead of increasing our production again they've left it at importation levels to make some more cash...

Has the story of whats been happening to our North Sea production passed you by, or do you subscribe to a non-mainstream view about the realities of UK oil & gas? It peaked years ago, its declining quite rapidly, few dispute this despite some spin earlier in the year from Gordon about new North Sea capacity. But I dont think even they were trying to pretend that the new capacity would reverse the decline. The only way we will become a substantial oil exporter again is if domestic demand for oil is completely decimated.

 

[darkfibre]

Has the story of whats been happening to our North Sea production passed you by[?]

Evidently.

First Minister Alex Salmond was warned he must break the SNP’s “addiction to oil” following a report which revealed that the North Sea has the steepest decline of any oil basin in the world.

<--->

It states: “Observed decline rates vary markedly by region; they are lowest in the Middle East and highest in the North Sea.”

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/940899?UserKey=



WRT the OP again... Aw, sod it... Kunstler (again) puts it better than I can:

In the Reality Lounge

The G-20 came to Washington for the weekend and sucked all the air out of the city before announcing that they were really serious about patching all the leaks in the foundering ship of globalism. Well, they have to at least pretend that they are doing something. Meanwhile, the former bit player known as reality has taken center stage in the ship's main lounge. It is putting on an act even gnarlier than the Kit Kat Klub show in Cabaret.

This reality show is sending some clear signals to the denizens of the real and really crowded world. The main signal is that the trade and financing rackets of recent decades are over. The extravaganza of economic hypergrowth based on cheap resources is over. The promiscuous swapping around of risk and rewards is over. There is no global institutional framework for managing the impairment left in the wake of this binge. It will be up to the individual nations now to figure out their national lives and livings.

Alas, the financial impairment is still on-going world-wide and has quite a ways to run before it's finished working its hoodoo on the so-called advanced economies. The lame duck US economic posse so far has done everything possible except the two things that really matter: allow the fraudulent securities at the heart of the problem to be exposed to the light of day to determine their actual value; and allow those companies who trafficked in them to suffer the full consequences by going out-of-business. For the moment, they're content to shovel cash into the truck-bed of every enterprise in America that shows up at the Treasury loading dock. This can only have the effect of eventually destroying the value of that cash.

 

[free spirit]

the point being is that we could if it were profitable start producing again. they cut the flow out of the UK becuase it was cheaper to pull the oil half way accross the world in tankers.... that's probably no longer the case but instead of increasing our production again they've left it at importation levels to make some more cash...

presumably you understand that finite resources run out if you use them up really fast?

well here's a newsflash for you, we've been using the north sea oil and cas up really fast. Now they're running out and the few remaining fields coming onstream can't make up for the rapidly reducing flow from older fields, and our increasing demand levels.

only way to resolve this is to revolutionise the countries energy efficiency and renewable energy policy otherwise we'll be heamoraging cash until we're bankrupt - 10% of our gdp per year being spent on importing fossil fuels is just not a level we can possibly sustain without it seriously impacting on our standard of living.

 

[gracious]

It was quite clear that my reference was to the market for Chinese exports.

sorry. thought the point you were making was that the chinese economy could fall over if their export markets failed. i was just saying that they have quite a big internal market which could easily absorb production which might, prior to recent events, be sold abroad.

the history of the usa is a good example of this sort of thing - they started off in industry by exporting to europe but they really industrialised by selling consumables and durables to the (substantial, but not as big as chinese) internal market.

that the emerging middle classes in china (which are massive and growing incredibly fast btw) save a lot is an interesting thought (and actually a big underlying cause of the current financial crisis) - once their current growth spurt has been around for a little while i think there will be a lot less need for them to save as the risk that this was just a flash in the pan short episode of growth subsides.

and even with the current levels of savings the chinese consumer does want all the things we have - spot cream, washing machine etc. equipping all of them with all of that is a hell of a lot of economic growth.

 

[Groucho]

sorry. thought the point you were making was that the chinese economy could fall over if their export markets failed. i was just saying that they have quite a big internal market which could easily absorb production which might, prior to recent events, be sold abroad.

the history of the usa is a good example of this sort of thing - they started off in industry by exporting to europe but they really industrialised by selling consumables and durables to the (substantial, but not as big as chinese) internal market.

that the emerging middle classes in china (which are massive and growing incredibly fast btw) save a lot is an interesting thought (and actually a big underlying cause of the current financial crisis) - once their current growth spurt has been around for a little while i think there will be a lot less need for them to save as the risk that this was just a flash in the pan short episode of growth subsides.

and even with the current levels of savings the chinese consumer does want all the things we have - spot cream, washing machine etc. equipping all of them with all of that is a hell of a lot of economic growth.

I was principally seeking to deal with the idea that the Chinese economy could rescue the World from recession. It can't. I pointed out that the recent significant growth of the Chinese economy from a low base was largely due to lending, importing and exporting. The Chinese economy is already slowing down significantly. The scope for protectionism shielding any economy from the impact of the World crisis is limited.

The Chinese Government have already put in place measures in readiness to deal with expected 'worker unrest' as they - like capitalists the World over - seek to make the majority pay for the capitalist crisis.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Yep, 8% is apparently their basline figure. Below that = effective recession.

A lot of the production slow downs/shut downs in China are supposed to be 'pre-emptive' at the minute, based on the expectation of significant falls in overseas demand. That still leaves the political problem of millions more unemployed though...

Who knows, maybe they'll have a revolution and become communists

 

[Bernie Gunther]

<snip>

Thing is, the future of those we care about is too important to be trusted to the whims of a bunch of fucking investment bankers and political parasites. They're just going to fuck us over to keep their scam going. I mean, anti-terror laws used against harmless hippies to try to preserve the revenue stream investors were expecting from Monsanto? Bailouts of deluded bankers?

So we need to find a way to look after ourselves.

 

[boskysquelch]

So we need to find a way to look after ourselves.

<clik_clak>

Right behind you Bro.

 

[Barking_Mad]

How long does it take to unwind £1 trillion of personal debt?

 

[kyser_soze]

It's the bit if that debt that's unservicable that's the issue...that figure includes mortgages, altho unsecured debt is still twice the average level in the EU...not that I can find any reliable stats on it...

Interesting if slightly dull article on banking debt