Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by tim, Nov 5, 2017.
The DUP will accept nothing but a hard border, the EU will not accept a hard border. The DUP is propping up the government, so where do we go from here?
May I ask. The UK government wants to end free movement with/from the EU but doesn't want a hard border with the republic of Ireland. How is it possible to end free movement without border checks?
Grateful for any explanations as the discussion I've seen in mainstream media hasn't explained it.
It obviously depends on the visa arrangements with the EU, but presumably it will be possible to get at least a visit visa on entry, but work permits may be required to work. In which case someone from the EU could sneak in via NI but equally they could just enter the country any other way and overstay/ start working under the table.
How do you get any sort of visa (to visit or work) on entry if there isn't a border of some sort?
The ROI is not in Shengen so that presumes that anybody allowed in is entitled to be in the EU. If they want to cross the open border into non EU UK then they can do that but they will need visa/papers to state they are in the UK legally. This is how EU countries with open land borders do it. Any foreigner in the country needs papers to state they are there legally even if there are no border checks. We are not used to this in mainland UK because we see ourselves as on an island fortress. We assume anybody who has gained access to our island is entitled to be there & we are not in Shengen of course.
This is different from a land border say between Germany & France that can be driven or walked across. All countries on mainland Europe will have mobile customs/immigration patrols near their borders who will be stopping & checking random vehicles.
well, fair enough, but you must have been trying bloody hard to avoid them!
If there's one thing the 2017 GE didn't lack for, it's polls - especially post-vote analyses. Those numbers were crunched more completely than ever before
Leaving one way out : the UK stays in the CU and the SM
Or: a CU and wholesale acceptance of SM rules in their entirety until an imaginary day when an impossible deal is finalised. Which is the point we seem to have reached with this agreement. Shame to have lost all our influence in shaping the rules, of course, but who knows, maybe some of this will creep back somehow.
It is a class one clusterfuck with bar.
I dunno, looks to me like a few good signs that there is going to be a way out of the clusterfuck, with the main downside being the survival of the May administration.
Did the job. Or maybe it didn't, but I got back to sleep anyway.
I don't think my mind realises that it is retired, I wake at 07:35* every bloody morning, which was when I awoke when working, and often can't get back to sleep.
*Awake at 07:35, out of bed at 08:00, showered and downstairs for 08:20, coffee and off to work at 08:40. Arrived at work 08:45. Make more coffee, switch on 'puter and ready for 09:00. The joy of living five minutes from where you work is immense. I had fifteen years of that.
You are correct, I've given up following the polls. It is a bit of a pointless exercise. What I follow is the betting odds, tends to give a better picture.
The only reason I hope she holds on, is I don't think I could abide another fucking general election.
The bookies are trying to make money, not predict the results.
The bookies odds pretty much followed the polls for brexit, trump and GE2017. There certainly wasn't anything you could learn from them, other than the views of a million pub bores.
Actually, I've given up following the polls. It is a bit of a pointless exercise. What I follow is the betting odds, tends to give a better picture. Is fluent pub-borese isn't It?
How'd that pay out last GE?
He was weeping, trouserless, outside the bookies at 10pm.
The bookies predicted the Cameron victory, the polls didn't.
And they make money how? By getting the result wrong?
how many significant polls have they 'got right' since then?
By getting people to bet.
And by adjusting the odds depending on where the money is laid so whatever the result they make money.
Or maybe they have some secret machine that predicts elections which has been on the blink since 2015. That's probably it.
This is the correct answer.
Bookies make money by 'over-rounding' the book. Briefly, a book is 100%. Two 'horses' both at Evens = 100%. Making a book more than 100% makes the bookie money. Sometimes a bookie doesn't need to know the correct result to make money. They only need to 'round' their book.
I made a fuckton, well, £400+, on the 2015 GE because the public never foresaw the SNP near whitewash, and the Tory majority.
Spread betting ftw.
That's funny, as the SNP whitewash was one of the things the polling companies got pretty much correct...
No they didn't.
sure. it was a complete surprise
the polls completely missed it.
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