1931 all over again, are we heading towards a new National Government?

[elbows]

Never say never, but certainly not at the moment and there would have to be a lot more crisis, and signs that plenty thought this was the solution, before we'd even reach the point of being able to discuss this stuff seriously.

And I'm really not sure there is enough in common with political world of 1931 these days to use such history as a guide. There were no shortage of issues during the 1970's that might have had some reaching for a comparable solution, but it didn't happen then did it, not even when we had a 3 day week and two general elections in the same year.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No, I don't think even the most right wing of Labour MPs would want to go into power with the Tories. What do you think would precipitate this, tim?

If they could stop Brexit, fuck Corbyn and transition into power relatively unscathed in terms of their political careers/seats they absolutely would.

Democracy as it is currently managed gave us Trump and Brexit. Democracy is absurdly easy to subvert. It’s not fit for purpose. Any alternative is worth trying.

The unrest would be manageable.

As long as we can make sure the markets function efficiently and the trains run on time eh?

I think everyone that thinks this is nonsense should probably consider that at the next election 3rd parties are likely to collapse and Tories and Labour will both get vote shares of 40% making a hung parliament very likely again. In that scenario, a GNU becomes a lot more likely.

In fact, I sort of wonder thinking about it if the reason May slapped the DUP thing together so quickly wasn't partially so no one else had chance to discuss an alternative - the ConLib coalition took days to sort.

 

[butchersapron]

Both parties getting 80% together would mean a drop - last time they got 82% whilst squeezing 3rd parties. A further squeeze would mean 82% plus and without some very weird results that would mean one party or another wins a commons majority and a hung parliament less likely - the same as prior to 2010. That's what the FPTP system does with no third party.

 

[killer b]

In fact, I sort of wonder thinking about it if the reason May slapped the DUP thing together so quickly wasn't partially so no one else had chance to discuss an alternative - the ConLib coalition took days to sort.

didn't the DUP agreement take a couple of weeks?

 

[butchersapron]

didn't the DUP agreement take a couple of weeks?

It did, two weeks longer than the wider and deeper lib-dem-tory coalition.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Both parties getting 80% together would mean a drop - last time they got 82% whilst squeezing 3rd parties. A further squeeze would mean 82% plus and without some very weird results that would mean one party or another wins a commons majority and a hung parliament less likely - the same as prior to 2010. That's what the FPTP system does with no third party.

Sorry, I meant to write 40%+ ie that both parties will receive in excess of 40% each, which hasn't happened since 1970. I agree with you that when it *used* to happen it tended to provide majority govt but given the way that both parties base of support has altered (trad metropolitan Tories voting Labour, trad w/class voters moving to Tories via UKIP, polarisation between old and young voters - simplification but you get the drift) I'm not convinced that would still be the case. If both parties hit 45% nationally you'll probably see a lot of results that do look pretty weird compared to elections in the last 40 years, particularly if turnout is high which is what caused everyone to overestimate Tory seats last time.

I'll put it in more general terms though - if/when we have an election next year Labour will gain seats and Tories will lose seats but I can't see them gaining/losing many either way. The possibility exists for a Corbyn landslide but I've not much faith in Labour taking the opportunity. In a scenario where the election results aren't significantly different than this year, meaning the possibility of another election within 2 years, and with the political representatives of neoliberalism desperate to re-assert themselves, I can see it. It would also be the best vehicle to sell the idea of remaining in the single market to the electorate - compromise and all that.

didn't the DUP agreement take a couple of weeks?

Yes but it was *announced* immediately - they didn't rush the the agreement but they rushed to announce who the agreement was between and nobody else had time to suggest an alternative. Although probably that was due to a myriad of factors, including possibly preventing a Tory leadership challenge, not saying it's particularly significant.

 

[killer b]

Sorry, I meant to write 40%+ ie that both parties will receive in excess of 40% each, which hasn't happened since 1970.

both parties got in excess of 40% each in June.

 

[SpackleFrog]

both parties got in excess of 40% each in June.

Yes, and there was a hung parliament.

 

[nardy]

Is there any subject about which you don't come across as a pig-ignorant mook?

No, not to the loony left.

 

[Nylock]

No, not to the loony left.

Glad you cleared that up...

 

[friendofdorothy]

I think the only way May can deliver Brexit is to involve capable people of every party - maybe not a coalition but some sort of cross party group to delivery Brexit.

Far to sensible an idea for it to ver happen though - they are all to busy feathering their own nest, touching each other up and looking out for their own individual careers while the UK is going to hell in a handcart.

Btw I don't want brexit - but the idea that we must leave seems to be the only thing they can agree on (well mostly)

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I don't think any group of sensible people are suddenly going to come together to deliver a sensible brexit. Nothing about brexit is sensible. See as all as just politics. The referendum only came about due to a struggle within the Tory party. It now looks like brexit in whatever form it takes or does not take will put the Tory party out of power sooner or later. Labour sees the opportunity of forming the next majority government so will do whatever it takes to make that happen.

I think Labour sees that as more important than the delivery of any sort of sensible brexit. The more the Tories fuck up brexit the bigger the Labour majority at next GE. The Tories are incapable of delivering brexit & the best way Labour can play it is to sit back in deckchairs munching on popcorn while they watch the Tories death throes.

 

[elbows]

I don't think any group of sensible people are suddenly going to come together to deliver a sensible brexit. Nothing about brexit is sensible. See as all as just politics. The referendum only came about due to a struggle within the Tory party. It now looks like brexit in whatever form it takes or does not take will put the Tory party out of power sooner or later. Labour sees the opportunity of forming the next majority government so will do whatever it takes to make that happen.

I think Labour sees that as more important than the delivery of any sort of sensible brexit. The more the Tories fuck up brexit the bigger the Labour majority at next GE. The Tories are incapable of delivering brexit & the best way Labour can play it is to sit back in deckchairs munching on popcorn while they watch the Tories death throes.

Yes. Just because a moment exists where it is possible to imagine that big chunks of various wings of various parties have much common ground on an issue considered central to the nation, doesn't mean they are terribly likely to do anything about it. Especially not when the anything is as big as forming a government and fully fracturing multiple parties in the process.

I mean correct me if I'm wrong to think thats what this thread is supposed to be about. Thats what I got from the OP and others, but looking at 20th century history the term National Government was used, or was attempted to be used, to describe some other coalitions that did not necessarily feature such degrees of party fracture.

Perhaps I would be somewhat more likely to buy into the possibility if we had actually had the sort of massive economic & market shocks that certain remainers predicted. I don't rule out quick moving political events and new plausible scenarios arriving on the scene if we do ever have that sort of acute crisis at some point, but so long as we don't, its kinda hard to imagine some of these possibilities ever approaching political reality.

 

[Ptolemy]

I don't understand why certain people see being "centrist" as something to admire. Surely all that means is you want the status quo to continue, with "rational, sensible policies".

Unfortunately, the status quo is why so many people are unhappy in the first place. And if the centrist defense of those policies were perceived to be lacking then, it's hard to see how they'd win people over now.

 

[Streathamite]

It did, two weeks longer than the wider and deeper lib-dem-tory coalition.

I was hoping someone would point out that the DUP deal wasn't a coalition!

 

[Streathamite]

I do think Amber Rudd has a strong chance of being PM in the near future. Have thought that for a while. As for the rest, um, no.

surely her tiny majority would scupper that, unless they could strongarm a Tory in a nearby safe seat into standing down?

 

[Streathamite]

Corbyn and the Tory Brexiteers pushed into opposition and the creation of a progressive sleaze free coalition and a reversal with or without referendum of Brexit.

That sounds fine by me. To the extent that I would join the cheering, banner-waving throngs in Trafalgar Square, come the glorious day.

I can't see anything even remotely progressive about such a coalition

 

[Streathamite]

No coup against Corbyn just decent parliamentarians sacrificing party interest in in the interest of the nation as a whole.

Those 'decent parliamentarians' are the Blairite rump.
No thanks, once was enough.

 

[Streathamite]

Isn’t Brexit motivation enough? But the rest of the PLP, nuLab to soft Left, is horrified by hard Brexit and might well take a short-term conspiracy of the sane, against the alternative of four more years party loyalty to an absurd leader while in opposition to a new Brexiteer PM chosen by 100,000 home counties Mail readers, and the wrecking of the UK economy.

The thing you're overlooking is that Corbyn's massive, dead solid popularity with a massive grass roots membership means that, for the vast majority of those PLP members, doing this would be political suicide. Deselection would be a near certainty

 

[SpackleFrog]

The thing you're overlooking is that Corbyn's massive, dead solid popularity with a massive grass roots membership means that, for the vast majority of those PLP members, doing this would be political suicide. Deselection would be a near certainty

I wish that were the case but I'm still waiting on Corbyn and the Labour Left to deliver automatic reselection and they're dragging their feet. Under the current rules it's far from certain. Way too many variables. In any case, deselection needn't be a problem until the *next* election, and MP's minded to be part of a GNU would be aiming to find new ways to secure their political careers - such a government would be very helpful in assisting them to tap into new groups of voters. There are people in this country who would never ever vote Labour for example but who might well vote for a Blairite MP selling themselves as part of a government in the 'national interest'.

 

[Streathamite]

fair points there, SF. I am pretty sure that the grass roots would go mental, though.

 

[SpackleFrog]

fair points there, SF. I am pretty sure that the grass roots would go mental, though.

Sure, but at this point what are the grassroots of the Labour Party to the Blairites but an inconvenience that needs to taken out of the equation? And are the grassroots of the LP organised enough to react to such a move? Or will they just go mental on social media?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

No, not to the loony left.

Wow. Do people still use that expression?

 

[tim]

The thing you're overlooking is that Corbyn's massive, dead solid popularity with a massive grass roots membership means that, for the vast majority of those PLP members, doing this would be political suicide. Deselection would be a near certainty

Deselection, though, wouldn't be an issue as they would be a new political entity, in the 30s "National Labour" ran against Labour.

 

[tim]

fair points there, SF. I am pretty sure that the grass roots would go mental, though.

Yes, but the Blairites and Brownites wouldn't care. They just want to be en marche!

 

[Nylock]

Wow. Do people still use that expression?

Mostly people like that fucking idiot.

 

[redsquirrel]

I think the only way May can deliver Brexit is to involve capable people of every party - maybe not a coalition but some sort of cross party group to delivery Brexit.

What constitutes "capable" here?

You do realise this is the same politics that brought about the coalition?

 

[Ptolemy]

Deselection, though, wouldn't be an issue as they would be a new political entity, in the 30s "National Labour" ran against Labour.

NL's split with the Labour party contributed to a 225 seat loss for the latter, an increase of 200+ seats for the Conservatives, and for all that NL came away with 13 seats. Hardly an encouraging precedent.

For a more recent example, see the SDP which did little more than fracture the vote on the left and help deliver Thatcher the 1983 landslide.

Even among the less-aware MPs, I see little appetite for that kind of risk - many who stood against the "official" Labour brand would lose their seats and they'd know it.

 

[Silas Loom]

If the "emergency" is one that can be resolved over the next year, and then normal party loyalties are restored in 2019, it's not a given that Labour MPs would be punished by the membership in 2022. Particularly not the core, activist membership, as opposed to more recent joiners.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

When your enemy is losing you let them carry on losing. You don't offer to help them. Labour need to do nothing more than stand & watch. The ineptness of the Tory front bench gets worse by the day. Look at Johnson. His uselessness at his job may well cause that poor woman to serve even more time in an Iranian jail. In normal times both him & Priti Patel would be clearing their desks right now. I think it is optimistic to believe there are 'sensible' Tories plotting to save the country. Imagine you are working in a place where the management is in disarray & appears to have lost the plot? All you would probably want to do is either leave or just keep your head down & draw your pay. Probably you would not want to stick your head above the parapet.

The Tories seem to be in a worse state than they were before the '97 election. This is a fantastic opportunity for Labour but they need to handle this carefully. They need to plot & plan so they are ready for an election whenever that occurs because when it does it will probably be quite sudden.