1931 all over again, are we heading towards a new National Government?

[Ptolemy]

In what dismal universe is Amber Rudd considered a Churchillian political colossus who should be called upon to save the nation? From all I've seen, she's a charmless wonder who repeats empty soundbites a la May and is sitting on a paper-thin majority of 346.

If she's genuinely the best the Tories can do, they really are fucked to a staggering degree.

 

[Silas Loom]

ETA: I can sort of see the point that pro-EU tories might see brexit going from bad to worse, feel that the tories will have to call an election soon and know that they're likely to lose that election. But in that circumstance, what is the motivation for r/w labour anti-Corbyn types to jump into bed with them? Despite their dislike of Corbyn, they'd be anticipating being in govt, and surely plotting how to get rid of him once they were there.

Isn’t Brexit motivation enough? There are a few Brownite cynics in Leave seats, a few weirdos like Kate Hoey, and then the Glorious Leader and his chums who genuinely believe that the EU is a capitalist plot. But the rest of the PLP, nuLab to soft Left, is horrified by hard Brexit and might well take a short-term conspiracy of the sane, against the alternative of four more years party loyalty to an absurd leader while in opposition to a new Brexiteer PM chosen by 100,000 home counties Mail readers, and the wrecking of the UK economy.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

In what dismal universe is Amber Rudd considered a Churchillian political colossus who should be called upon to save the nation? From all I've seen, she's a charmless wonder who repeats empty soundbites a la May and is sitting on a paper-thin majority of 346.

If she's genuinely the best the Tories can do, they really are fucked to a staggering degree.

Absolutely. But I think she might be the best they can do.

Her tiny majority is kind of irrelevant - if she loses next time, that probably means the tories are out of power anyway.

 

[Ptolemy]

Absolutely. But I think she might be the best they can do.

Her tiny majority is kind of irrelevant - if she loses next time, that probably means the tories are out of power anyway.

Perhaps, but any party would be extremely skittish about having their leader hold such a dangerously low majority. I'd struggle to think of any leader represented in Parliament in recent years who could compare. Only Tim Farron after the June election, and he resigned quickly afterwards (for unrelated reasons, though I'm sure it would have been a factor for consideration come the next election).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Isn’t Brexit motivation enough? There are a few Brownite cynics in Leave seats, a few weirdos like Kate Hoey, and then the Glorious Leader and his chums who genuinely believe that the EU is a capitalist plot. But the rest of the PLP, nuLab to soft Left, is horrified by hard Brexit and might well take a short-term conspiracy of the sane, against the alternative of four more years party loyalty to an absurd leader while in opposition to a new Brexiteer PM chosen by 100,000 home counties Mail readers, and the wrecking of the UK economy.

Well labour have gone very very quiet on brexit recently, unless I've missed something (entirely possible). But they weren't advocating hard brexit last time I heard from Starmer on the subject - he appears to be softening by the second (and Starmer isn't even pro-brexit - Corbyn's appointed a remainer as shadow brexit minister).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Perhaps, but any party would be extremely skittish about having their leader hold such a dangerously low majority. I'd struggle to think of any leader represented in Parliament in recent years who could compare. Only Tim Farron after the June election, and he resigned quickly afterwards (for unrelated reasons, though I'm sure it would have been a factor for consideration come the next election).

Hasings was tory, went labour for a bit under Blair, then tory again. If the tories lose Hastings, they're in shit, regardless of who the mp is there. They'd want rid of Rudd anyway in that event.

 

[Silas Loom]

Well labour have gone very very quiet on brexit recently, unless I've missed something (entirely possible). But they weren't advocating hard brexit last time I heard from Starmer on the subject - he appears to be softening by the second (and Starmer isn't even pro-brexit - Corbyn's appointed a remainer as shadow brexit minister).

Yes, but what Labour does in opposition is irrelevant. What Labour - or a large swathe of the PLP - does in tandem with SNP, LDs and Tory Remainers could be hugely relevant. And for it to be rather more than a few spoiler amendments here and there, it would need to be done without Corbyn.

 

[Ptolemy]

Hasings was tory, went labour for a bit under Blair, then tory again. If the tories lose Hastings, they're in shit, regardless of who the mp is there. They'd want rid of Rudd anyway in that event.

I admit I'm not familiar with the makeup of the town. Having looked at the results for the last few GEs, Labour really pulled it close to the brink this time around. Not guaranteed to make it happen next time though... any idea why it was so closely fought, aside from the Greens standing down?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I admit I'm not familiar with the makeup of the town. Having looked at the results for the last few GEs, Labour really pulled it close to the brink this time around. Not guaranteed to make it happen next time though... any idea why it was so closely fought, aside from the Greens standing down?

It's been a lab/tory marginal since the 90s. It's a diverse constituency with quite deprived bits in Hastings but also including well-to-do tory Rye.

 

[oryx]

I admit I'm not familiar with the makeup of the town. Having looked at the results for the last few GEs, Labour really pulled it close to the brink this time around. Not guaranteed to make it happen next time though... any idea why it was so closely fought, aside from the Greens standing down?

I would guess that there is an increasing population of DFLs (Down from Londons) who may well vote Labour, and possibly the local party worked to register people.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I would guess that there is an increasing population of DFLs (Down from Londons) who may well vote Labour, and possibly the local party worked to register people.

Maybe a bit, but it went lab in 97. It has gone to the overall winner since it was created. Been a bit of a 'bell weather' constituency since then.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anyway, Amber Rudd is vile. Since when has that stopped anyone becoming PM?

She could come out of this sex scandal strengthened, and she has credit in the bank for stepping up before the last election, appearing on the TV debate to have shit thrown at her instead of May.

 

[nardy]

Democracy is absurdly easy to subvert. It’s not fit for purpose. Any alternative is worth trying.

What alternative? Communism, which always fails, or dictatorship, which always fails, or ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hasings was tory, went labour for a bit under Blair, then tory again. If the tories lose Hastings, they're in shit, regardless of who the mp is there. They'd want rid of Rudd anyway in that event.

If Rudd became leader I doubt she would stand in Hastings, as Labour would throw everything they have at Hastings, thus it would be possible for her to be unseated even if the Tories won nationally.

To avoid such a risk I suspect the Tories would parachute her into a safe seat, like West Worthing, which includes some wealthy & sizeable Arun villages that prop up a very comfortable majority of over 12k, and I would be surprised if Peter Bottomley intends to stand again, as he's well into his 70s already.

 

[tim]

If Rudd became leader I doubt she would stand in Hastings, as Labour would throw everything they have at Hastings, thus it would be possible for her to be unseated even if the Tories won nationally.

To avoid such a risk I suspect the Tories would parachute her into a safe seat, like West Worthing, which includes some wealthy & sizeable Arun villages that prop up a very comfortable majority of over 12k, and I would be surprised if Peter Bottomley intends to stand again, as he's well into his 70s already.

If we had a National Government, she would no longer be standing as a Tory, but as a centrist Coalition candidate.

 

[cupid_stunt]

But, we are not going to get a national government.

 

[Silas Loom]

What alternative? Communism, which always fails, or dictatorship, which always fails, or ...

I’m not suggesting any of those, just that the argument that the OP’s wonderful idea is “anti-democratic” doesn’t blow it out of the water. It’s constitutionally sound, it’s in the public interest, it could happen without bloodshed, and that’s what should count.

More broadly, referendums on meaningless slogans like “leave”, and elections without accountability for messaging and digital spend, and primaries limited to a tiny and self-serving activist base, are seriously problematic; any formula for decision-making and selection of the executive which allows for these is flawed.

 

[Silas Loom]

But, we are not going to get a national government.

Yeah, unfortunately, this.

 

[Pickman's model]

Democracy as it is currently managed gave us Trump and Brexit. Democracy is absurdly easy to subvert. It’s not fit for purpose. Any alternative is worth trying.

any way the wind blows, doesn't really matter to you?

 

[Pickman's model]

I’m not suggesting any of those, just that the argument that the OP’s wonderful idea is “anti-democratic” doesn’t blow it out of the water. It’s constitutionally sound, it’s in the public interest, it could happen without bloodshed, and that’s what should count.

Yeh the famous invisible constitution

 

[chilango]

“Public interest”

 

[Poi E]

For want of a better term the Establishment, the same dortnof pressures thst hot rid of Gough Williams.

Still the subject of litigation, most recently when a historian, Jenny Hocking, fought at the High Court for the release of the correspondence between ER and that drunk swine John Kerr. Whitlam’s son was the QC in the case.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

The op is a pipe dream. For it to happen would require cooperation. The atmosphere in parliament is poisonous & divisive. If brexit goes badly wrong next year then the possible future must be a successful no confidence vote & a general election surely?

 

[NoXion]

I’m not suggesting any of those, just that the argument that the OP’s wonderful idea is “anti-democratic” doesn’t blow it out of the water. It’s constitutionally sound, it’s in the public interest, it could happen without bloodshed, and that’s what should count.

More broadly, referendums on meaningless slogans like “leave”, and elections without accountability for messaging and digital spend, and primaries limited to a tiny and self-serving activist base, are seriously problematic; any formula for decision-making and selection of the executive which allows for these is flawed.

So you don't mind an iron fist, so long as it's wrapped in a velvet glove?

 

[DotCommunist]

he's a whig. Not even a radical whig.

 

[A380]

Citizenship through service.

 

[Nylock]

What alternative? Communism, which always fails, or dictatorship, which always fails, or ...

Is there any subject about which you don't come across as a pig-ignorant mook?

 

[tim]

But, we are not going to get a national government.

Do you think the Tories can pull themselves back together? If not where do the Europhile centrists go? Also do you think that the Labour Party infighting is permanently over? If not what is the future for Liz and Yvette?

 

[redsquirrel]

Do you think the Tories can pull themselves back together? If not where do the Europhile centrists go?

The vast majority won't go anywhere. Look at the last election, the LD vote dropped.

 

[killer b]

The europhile centrists voted Labour at the last election.