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That's probably the right place if you live in the east of the ward (ie Myatts Fields area).Originally Posted by Badgers
If I had a poll card this would all be easier
Or you can phone the council to check on 020 7926 2170
Or you can PM me your address and I'll find out for you.
Yeah, did this and they pointed me to the school.
Well organised as usual
Vassall by election result
Steve Bradley - Lib Dem - 1209
Labour - 859
Conservative - 206
Green 109
Random others - 15
Steve Bradley's asked me to say thank you to all the urbanites he's met during the campaign while chatting to them on his doorstep.
Steve's in fact had an urban account for a while - and will post up here again in the near future.
Steve's asked me to ask all of his new constituents to PM him if you have issues. He's also offered to do an online surgery here if anyone has anything they want to discuss.
<Election nerdery>
This is an 11.5% swing from last time - if repeated at other elections the Lib Dems would win Lambeth council (with a large majority), all three Parliamentary seats in Lambeth and the GLA seat in Lambeth
And compared to the 2006 election Labour have lost almost half their vote - down from about 1400 to 850.
<Election nerdery>
Last edited by Bob; 21-03-2008 at 01:43. Reason: Adding extra figure
Well, there you are - in spite of all the publicity and intensive canvassing Labour voters simply stayed at home.
As predicted - a crushing rejection of the Labour Party in Lambeth and its present policies.
Firstly - well done! It seemed like the LDs had really gone for this seat and it just shows how hard work pays off, especially in byelections.
As I read it (from memory of last time) what really happened here is that the LD vote kind of held steady (up a small amount) and the labour vote collapsed.
What do you think was the main factor in that? I'm guessing that the whole ALMO saga turned off a large chunk of Labour's normal support - especially in the estates, but I can't think of anything else in particular.
publicity
All I had were leaflets through my door saying little apart from how crap the Lib Dems were in the past and how bad they would be in the future.
intensive canvassing
One fella knocked on my door and could not answer the few questions I had for him.
Then one day before the vote a women knocked on my door saying 'hi I hope Labour can count on your vote?'. I answered by saying 'why should I support you when you have done little or nothing to address the most basic issues?'. Her response was 'how about your wife, is she home?'
Pleased about the result
Perhaps more people would have voted if the polling station had not been so well hidden?
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Last edited by sexton; 21-03-2008 at 11:40. Reason: delete
2
my maths might be wrong, but by my calculations this result makes Lambeth council like this:
labour 38 (-1)
lib dem 18 (+1)
tories 6 (-)
Greens 1 (-)
Interesting result, very interesting.
It's very hard to base predictions on it but I'm sure it won't stop everyone..
Do you think this has any rammifications for May1st? I know if the same 400odd voters deserted Labour in each ward across Lambeth and Southwark, Val Shawcross would lose her seat. But of course, it isn't as simple as that..
Predictions on a postcard please..
The normal guidelines of logical reasoning are generally faulty when applied to politics or religion, but let's see where they might lead us here!
Lambeth was the only London Borough that bucked the trend in the 2006 LG elections and returned an increased Labour vote. I don't think that the national Party has increased in popularity under Brown.
We have just seen the result in Vassall, following on the massive rejection of Steve Reed in Streatham, which would suggest that the Party's local policies are not gaining it any friends at the moment. There have also been defections from Labour reported in Croydon and other boroughs.
The "Jasper Effect" and the fact that Ken, although still a ***** performer, is beginning to look tired, and his administration appears to be running out of ideas, won't help.
Frankly, I wouldn't put my money on Shawcross.
I guess that many must wonder why, when she appeared to have by far the largest following for the Streatham parliamentary selection, she chose not to run. I am not convinced that it had anything to do with a possible clash with her GLA campaign.
Still Boris is entirely awful, and who is the local Conman?
In Lambeth we know Brian Paddick, and he will certainly get my vote for Mayor. When he speaks he comes across as being both able and sincere. He has also proved himself in the real world outside politics! So far he has not had much exposure in the media, but he may well stride ahead in the endgame
I think there is still all to play for on every side, so I won't be placing my bet until the final week. Ask me again then, if you are still interested.
It will be strange in a way, in 2004, Southwark had Hughes, in 2008, Lambeth has Paddick.
I hope the closeness pushes the turnout up. I'm sure all that are reading are aware of the threat of the BNP gaining a seat..
Whoever becomes mayor, we must wish that they don't have to deal with anyone from THAT party!
There are about 40 wards across Lambeth & Southwark, and the Labour majority in the GLA seat last time was about 5,000.Interesting result, very interesting.
It's very hard to base predictions on it but I'm sure it won't stop everyone..
Do you think this has any rammifications for May1st? I know if the same 400odd voters deserted Labour in each ward across Lambeth and Southwark, Val Shawcross would lose her seat. But of course, it isn't as simple as that..
Predictions on a postcard please..
So if 63 or so voters in each ward switch from Labour to Lib Dem (ie making 125 or so difference to the majority) then Shawcross loses her seat to Caroline Pidgeon (Lib Dem).
Or (given that the green & conservative vote fell in Vassall) 125 Conservative / Green voters could vote Lib Dem in each ward for this to happen.
So perfectly possible.
Incidentally in Southwark in the Riverside ward just before Christmas the trend was similar for all the parties.
Doesn't look to me like there was much of a swing going on; more that the Lib dem vote held steady (up a little) but the Labour vote collapsed. That could still give the GLA seat to the Lib-dems of course, but it also looks to me like Labour didn't put anything like as much energy into Vassell as the LDs - I wouldn't have thought that'd be the case for the GLA?
Not sure how the "green vote fell in Vassell" - they didn't stand last time and effectively put up a paper candidate this time.
Labour did put quite a lot of effort into it - obviously hard to tell how much but they had clearly canvassed a lot of people. I can't prove they put a lot of effort into it - but my strong impression is that they did.Doesn't look to me like there was much of a swing going on; more that the Lib dem vote held steady (up a little) but the Labour vote collapsed. That could still give the GLA seat to the Lib-dems of course, but it also looks to me like Labour didn't put anything like as much energy into Vassell as the LDs - I wouldn't have thought that'd be the case for the GLA?
Not sure how the "green vote fell in Vassell" - they didn't stand last time and effectively put up a paper candidate this time.
Green vote - good point - you're right that they didn't stand in 2006 - I must have been thinking about when they last stood there. It was slightly more than a paper candidate though - they did make an effort to go round and deliver leaflets / talk to people a fair amount.
GLA - I suppose both parties will be putting effort fairly evenly across Southwark & Lambeth - what we're looking at here is what evidence there is from Vassall for L&S as a whole. I'd say that it shows that Labour might be in some trouble.
Yep, that was my understanding of it. I think it is under 5,000, from what I recall.
It simply gets confusing because I would expect strong Labour areas to bail out Lambeth, e.g: Peckham.
But if Labour can't hold L/S, you'd be looking at total wipeout across GLA,surely?If the localised trends were repeated anyway..
I hope that this is not a post in support of the Stop the Great Conspiracy Party (You know the Mullahs, Gays, Masons, Catholics, Blacks, Communists, Jews, Domino-players are out to get us! Stop them!)
There is no possibility of us getting a BNP Mayor of London, or of a BNP candidate being elected for our South London area, and not much chance elsewhere. Hysterical publicity that suggests otherwise merely give those vile people encouragement by making them believe that they have a serious following.
All they need is 5% to grab one of the PR based seats (I think). They werent a million miles off last time iirc.
very true.
Not really for two reasons.
Firstly there are plenty of areas where the opposition to Labour is split fairly evenly - e.g. Barnet & Camden GLA seat where Barnet is mainly Conservatives in second place and Camden's mainly Lib Dems in second place. That will help Labour keep a fair number of consituency GLA seats.
Secondly Labour only get 2 top up seats at present, so if they lose constituency seats they'll pick up top up seats. So if Labour fell to 20% of the vote they'd only fall from 7 seats to 5 or so (probably 6).
I take your point about not giving too much significance to the BNP. But my guess is that they ARE going to win a GLA seat this time round. To do so, they need 5% of the London-wide vote. Last time out, they got 4.71%, it's a tiny increase to nab a seat, and it must give their activists a sense of energy and purpose. With a seat comes (a) tons of publicity and (b) some pretty good money (by BNP standards). If they're smart they'll make good use of that. Luckily the evidence tends to indicate non-smartness on their part, but all the same we are looking like having a minor BNP resurgence to deal with.
There is some evidence of scaremongering, but happily none of a neo-fascist resurgence.
Anyway, the world would not come to an end if the BNP win a single seat on the GLA. We have one Green councillor in Lambeth, a pleasant, hard working intelligent woman, but outside her Herne Hill constituency one hears little of her, and unfortunately she has little effect on council policy.
However, alarmist nonsense about "the BNP threat" is likely to attract more deluded individuals to that unpleasant group of racists and misfits.
I wouldn't call it alarmist nonense. I don't think it will happen in L/S, I was thinking simply within the top up system, because the maths of UKIP withering away and only 0.2 moving onto BNP would give them a seat.
I guess I just don't like the inevitable rubbish the right wing redtops will come out with. They will be "disappointed" but claim it poses serious questions about the viability of multicultural Britain. Well, I wouldn't put it past them..
And I think provocative newspaper articles have more power to stir things up than a sole AM member for the BNP, but the AM member would therefore give them the ammo to write stuff.
South London Press report
Lib Dem cruises to shock victory
Mar 26 2008
By Chief Reporter Greg Truscott
A BOROUGH'S political leadership has been dealt a bloody nose in a by-election.
The Labour administration in Lambeth has been left reeling after a surprise defeat in the Vassall ward voting.
The Liberal Democrats won what had previously been considered a safe Labour seat with an 11 per cent swing in the vote.
Winning candidate Steve Bradley cruised to victory with 1,209 votes, hammering Labour's candidate Dr Andy Flannagan, who polled just 859 votes.
The Lib Dem win is a serious upset for Labour - just two years after it won control of the town hall from the former Lib Dem and Conservative coalition in May 2006.
Bob, I reckon Labour would do better (or less bad) in Southwark and worse in Lambeth -- local incumbency factor in both cases. The Lib Dems around here (SE17) aren't massively popular ...
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