Green results in Lambeth - percentages & analysis

[TeeJay]

I have crunched the Lambeth numbers a bit and thought people might find this interesting. The percentages quoted are based on comparing the *average* vote for each party - ie adjusting for the number of candidates each party had in that ward.

ward..........Green.(+/-)[rank]...Lab.(+/-)....LD.(+/-)....Con.(+/-)...LEAP(+/-).other......(other +/-)......
..................%.................%..........%...........%...........%.........%...........%...
Bishop's.........16..(+7).[3rd]....19..(-9)....43.(-11)....12..(+6)....11.(+11)..............(-4)SA..........
Brixton Hill.....23..(+5).[2nd]....47..(+3)....17..(+3)....13..(+2).........................(-12)SA..........
Clapham Common...13..(+3).[4th]....29..(-3)....30..(-2)....28..(+2)..........................................
Clapham Town.....15..(+2).[3rd]....40..(+1)....11..(-1)....33..(-2)..............1(+1)(soc)..(-1)ind.........
Coldharbour......21..(+7).[2nd]....57..(+0)....12..(+0)....11..(+5)..........................(-9)SA...(-3)ind
Ferndale.........19..(+2).[3rd]....47..(-9)....21..(+3)....13..(+4)..........................................
Gipsy Hill.......19.(+12).[3rd]....26..(-7)....13..(+6)....41.(-12)..........................................
Herne Hill.......37.(+13).[2nd]....37..(-5)....10..(-8)....16..(+0)..........................................
Knight's Hill....15..(+6).[3rd]....39..(+6)....34.(-11)....12..(+3)..........................(-4)SA..........
Larkhall.........16..(+5).[4th]....50..(-1)....18..(-8)....17..(+9)..........................(-5)SA..........
Oval.............14..(+3).[3rd]....27..(+2)....37.(-14)....13..(+5).....6..(+6)..4(+4)(EngD).(-5)SA..........
Prince's.........14..(+6).[4th]....45..(+7)....23.(-22)....15..(+7).....4..(+4)..............................
St.Leonard's.....17..(+7).[3rd]....17.(-11)....41.(-11)....13..(+3)....12.(+12)..............................
Stockwell........12..(+2).[3rd]....42..(+7)....30.(-20)....10..(+5).....7..(+7)..............................
Streatham Hill...15..(+0).[3rd]....20..(-5)....33.(-15)....10..(-1).....9..(+9)...14(+14)(ind).................
Streatham South...9..(+2).[4th]....44..(+4)....36..(+2)....11..(-7)..........................................
Streatham Wells..17..(+5).[3rd]....24..(+2)....48.(-10)....12..(+4)..........................................
Thornton.........12..(+2).[4th]....44..(+5)....30.(-13)....14..(+5)..........................................
Thurlow Park.....18..(+6).[2nd]....17..(+5)....13..(+0)....41.(-10).....9..(+9)..3(+1)(ukip).................
Tulse Hill.......24..(+6).[2nd]....51..(+0)....15..(+1)....11..(+1)..........................(-8)SA..........
Vassall.........dns.(n/a).[n/a]....45..(+4)....35..(+0)....12..(+4)..............8(+8)(Rspt).(-5)SA..........

overall..........17..(+5).[3rd]....36..(+0)....26..(-6)....17..(+1)

dns = did not stand; LEAP = Local Education by Parents, SA = Socialist Alliance, EngD = English Democrats, Rspt = Respect, Ind = independent, soc = socialist; (other +/-) ie the last column - indicates parties that stood in 2002 but not this year - ie indicates a "fall" equivalent to their previous share of the vote; The full results can be found here: http://www.lambeth.gov.uk/Services/CouncilDemocracy/DemocracyElections/ElectionsVoting.htm ).

My comments:

* More than one in six voters choose Green: if Lambeth had PR the Green Party we would now have 11 cllrs, and a controlling position on the council (not just one - Rebecca Thackray in Herne Hill - like they do now).

* The Greens average is up 5% to 17.2% which means they have now overtaken the Conservatives (16.9%) as the third party in Lambeth in terms of popular support and are only 9% behind the Lib Dems (26%).

* The Greens were the only party to see a rise in every single ward across Lambeth. The other parties saw their share of the vote fall: Labour in 10 wards, Lib Dems in 16 and the Conservatives in 6 wards. Although Labour won back several wards their actual share of the vote remained static at 36%.

* Up till now it seemed that the Green vote was strongest in traditionally Labour wards (eg the "central wards" of Coldharbour, Tulse Hill, Brixton Hill, Ferndale & Herne Hill) but this election has seen a large increase (12%) in the Conservative ward of Gipsy Hill and a rise in the Conservative ward of Thurlow Park which has put them into second place there. The Green vote has even grown strongly in 'Lib Dem' wards like Bishop's and St.Leonard's - the Greens are taking votes from all three parties.

* Despite a strong showing from LEAP (Local Education by Parents) in various wards this doesn't seem to have impacted on the Green vote. It also suggests that there is even more potential for these protest votes to go Green next time.

* There are now three more wards that are at or near the level of support that Herne Hill had in 2002, which means that a realistic target for the next local election is to win seats in four wards - ie up to 12 cllrs.

* The electoral/political dynamics of Lambeth seem to consist of the voters getting annoyed alternately at both Lib Dems and Labour and kicking them each out every four years - only to put the other lot back in (probably in the hope that this time they might do better). This suggests that the Lambeth electorate is very ready for an alternative to both these parties - one that isn't just going to endlessly and continually repeat the same old mistakes and cock-ups. When people realise that the Green Party actually stands a very good chance of being elected and a certain "break point" is reached, instead of simply flip-flopping between Labour and Lib Dems every four years there will be a sudden jump towards Greens as a really fresh alternative.

* Can anyone explain the following results:

Lib Dems losing 22% in Prince's and 20% in Stockwell
Conservatives losing 12% in Gipsy Hill and 10% in Thurlow Park
Labour losing 11% in St.Leonard's and 9% in Bishop's and Ferndale

[Brixton Hatter]

nice one teejay - good work! :cool:

i didn't really realise how much of a fucking success that was for the greens in lambeth and i'm very pleased! looks like they really could do better next time

[JTG]

It's what I've been saying elsewhere - nationally these elections have seen the Greens win a few seats but amneuvre themselves into second place or good thirds in a lot more. Over the next 3 or 4 years we're going to see a lot more Greens elected all over the country.

[nipsla]

I

Lib Dems losing 22% in Prince's


My assumption would be (and I have absolutely no facts to back this up) that this would be down to the Fitchett effect. I assume Labour ran a strong campaign in the ward based on the £3m that went walkies.

I think this was also Charles Anglin's ward, and the nasty stories put out by one of the other parties in the SLP about him being on Gaydar couldn't have helped.

[mort]

nipsla assumes correct - Prince's saw a heavy leaflet campaign from labour (we seemed to be getting up to a couple a day) all of which targetted the 'performance' of the three Lib Dem cllrs. Fitchett in particular.... seems to have been very effective.

[TeeJay]

nice one teejay - good work! :cool:

i didn't really realise how much of a fucking success that was for the greens in lambeth and i'm very pleased! looks like they really could do better next timeThanks! :)

I was worried for while there that this thread had died a death.

It should be interesting for everyone - not just Green supporters - because it lists all the vote shares for all the parties.

I wouldn't be surprised however if any Lib Dem, Labour or Conservative supporters try and ignore these results and this thread, as there isn't much good news for any of them in it.

I am thinking of starting another thread as well: "What can you tell us about our new Lambeth councillors?" ... with all the new councillors listed, and inviting people to tell us what these people's politics are and what we might expect from them on various issues.

[g force]

Congrats to the Greens on a great result. Here are my thoughts, based purely on personal experience:

I think if the Green's want to get more seats they need to do more active work. I know if absolutely no one in Streatham (from the Hill to the Common) who recieved any sort of literature from the Greens. In contrast we got 5 Labour newsletters, 2 tory and a couple of Lib Dem through the door. That might be due to resorucing, I appreciate, but their was little for potential voters to look at.

No one knocked on doors, there was nothing. I was talking to my partner and her friends about voting Green after the election and they all turned round and said, "Well, we would have done we don't really know what they stand for and how they;sd run Lambeth if elected."

These aren't lazy people, they have a passion for politics, but the Greens aren't doing a good enough job Lambeth-wide to promote themsleves or their policies. How do they expect to reach undecided people or hell, even non-voters, when people who take an active interest in local affairs aren't aware of their policies?

The talk of PR voting is all well and good, but we don't have it. So please make a better job of promoting Green policies across the board, not just a few seats.

This is meant to be constructive BTW because I think having more Green councillors could only benefit Lambeth and help alleviate some of the problems we have.

[TeeJay]

The Green Party is still small, both in numbers and resources. While Herne Hill was canvassed extensively - with leaflets put through all doors and people knocking and talking to residents - this took a lot of person-power and Green supporters from all round Lambeth not just that ward. Just canvassing one fair-sized road can take two people an hour or two on a Saturday afternoon and producing customised leaflets for the ward requires money. The Green Party also suffers the disadvantage that it doesn't feature in the mainstream media's coverage of national politics on a daily basis, and up till now it didn't have a Lambeth councillor.

Each ward has about 12,000 people (9,000 voters) living in about 5,000 households. It takes a lot of pavement-pounding to deliver this number of leaflets by hand, and even more time to ring bells and talk to people.

Unfortunately logistics and the numbers of people and resources available this year meant that only in Herne Hill could a full campaign be mounted (although there were campaigns in other wards). It is likely that in four years time - given more people joining Lambeth Green Party not least due to a higher profile resulting from Becca Thackray - full campaigns targetted will be mounted in maybe the four to six most promising wards, with more limited activity in other wards.

Ideally there would be a full campaign as you describe in every single ward in Lambeth, but this requires people on the ground more than anything else and there is the danger that if resources are spread too thin, that while you might increase the vote slightly everywhere you won't actually get anyone elected in any one ward.

Personally I have always been in favour of standing a full slate of candidates across all wards and trying to support these candidates in their local activity, rather than the "pick a target ward and put all resources in to winning it" philosophy, but the truth is that the latter has produced wins for Green Parties (and other parties) all around the country for many years. My favoured approach envisages a slower, more localised and more organic growth in support and membership - almost a street-by-street approach, but I can't deny the catalytic effect of actually winning seats and subsequently having high profile public figures who suddenly get coverage from the media because they are elected (the most obvious being the Green GLA members and MEPs). If this means targetting the most fertile wards and putting an extra effort into these then maybe this is an acceptable tactic, although I still favour a bit of both approaches - both Lambeth-wide support for all candidates in all wards *plus* "target wards" where extra resources are channelled.

I look forward to the day when Lambeth Green Party has enough active supporters and enough money to do full campaigns - with leaflets and canvassing - in every single ward in the borough. It is still growing and will get there in time.

[g force]

Thanks for response! I figured resorucing was always going to be an issue for a Lambeth-wide campaing.

And agree it was right to concentrate in those wards where the chances of success were highest and use that success as a springboard. I just wish we could have got a Green in Streatham, where I know a lot of my frends voted Labour to avoid the Lib Dems chance of making up a 9% margin.

Keep up the great work :)

[memespring]

The Green Party is still small, both in numbers and resources.

The Greens should really try and build a good supporters network off the back of the local elections - just a basic email group or something. Alot of people are very symathetic towards them and would probably help out at certain times, but wouldent nesseserally become fully blown members IMO.

[TeeJay]

The Greens should really try and build a good supporters network off the back of the local elections - just a basic email group or something. Alot of people are very symathetic towards them and would probably help out at certain times, but wouldent nesseserally become fully blown members IMO.I agree.

After all I am not even a GP member (although I admit that I used to be when I lived in Lambeth), but I do try and help out when I can along with many other people.

I have already been talking with Becca about setting up a blog and getting a proper Lambeth Green Party website up and running, however I haven't done either before so if anyone wants to help out I can PM Becca's email and she will shortly be getting an official Lambeth .gov.uk one as well.

An email list is a great idea - one issue at the moment is that the previous LGP coordinator has just this week moved so I need to check who things have been handed over to before I give out contact details. Hopefully I'll find out this weekend.

[g force]

Well I work as a copywriter, writing web copy etc, so if my skills can be used, PM me and i'll help out if at all possible.

[TeeJay]

As someone who is also "just helping out" I need to go and have a chat with various people (some of whom are away this weekend unfortunately), but I will certainly get back to you and hopefully have a full set of contact details and who/what/when/where types stuff by next week sometime at least.

[stadin kundi]

As an ex-brixton settler from the 80´ and Finnish green-red voter my self, I congrat the local greens for the good results in the good old Brixton & Lambeth. That´s the way!