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Oil Prices at record high - $145 a barrel

Discussion in 'transport' started by roryer, Apr 15, 2008.

  1. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    Currently trading at $113 with the dollar at below $1.50 to the Euro. Well now what is going on round the world....
  2. hammerntongues

    hammerntongues Well-Known Member

    The price of vegetable oil which is the feedstock for Biodiesel production has fallen in line with fuel oil , Palm oil for example was trading at USD 1250 a ton in March is now USD 940 , Soya , Rape have fallen the same way.
  3. Cobbles

    Cobbles Banned Banned

    Oooh someone had better tell the Brazilians that they're doing it all wrong:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/08/12/scifuel112.xml

    Ah - maybe not...
  4. hammerntongues

    hammerntongues Well-Known Member

    The palm oil that they refer to in the article does not come directly to Europe but via the USA , its madness , on its own it does not compete into Europe but ship it to the USA and it gathers a tax subsidy that is the " profit " that the shippers get from shipping it back accross the Atlantic or " splash and dash " as its known in the trade.

    Gotta love those politicians !!
  5. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    agree

    declining rescouce & rising demand globally will mean the steady rise in prices long term, irrrepective of short term peaks & troughs
  6. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    for much of the Bofuel industry, yes, but much of the sugar derived BF makes more economic sense - the US subsidy situation has ensured that the whole BF industry is lopsided now
  7. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    One day we might wake up and realise that while we are feeding cars very well, we are unable to feed the people.
  8. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    Well then there too many people isn't there and thats IMO is the real problem behind everything.

    Too many people (Or should I just say too many consumers) and not enough resources.

    Blaming, oil, food, housing whatever is only finger pointing bollox and solves nothing.

    However these could be a catalyst to solving the world population problems as demand and supply dictates that when the resources get scarce the price goes up. Those who cant afford them wont get them. So you either survive without them or you die.
  9. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Yes, unfortuneately you've hit the nail on the head!

    The motoring lobby and other capitalist elites, are quite happy to see millions of the world's poor, (who aren't very good consumers anyway), suffer death from starvation, so long as Western consumers are still able to to drive.

    But don't relax yet, thinking that you can cope with a few news images and reports of starving children in the third world, reassuring yourself that, "well its a shame but there's nothing I can do about it", as you drive the 500m to the supermarket.

    Although it's actually this selfish attitude that Capitalism depends on, I don't expect anyone to actually change their way of life for someone elses benefit. I mean only those crazy Greens and left wingers, who are villified in such organs of truth as the Standard, Times or Mail, would suggest we move to a new economic model that encourages cooperation instead of competition?

    But what might worry you is that there is a good possibility that energy poverty will start to hit closer to home, and since anyone can find themself suddenly broke and unemployed, it could be any of us.

    Perhaps that should be motivation enough to start to plan for a low energy future, and start carbon rationing.
  10. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    I wont take that as a direct dig as you dont know me so it would be a very broad assumption on your part.

    Everyone consumes, but they'll happilly point a finger at these people or those, OH NO its there fault over there. Whinge whinge moan moan whinge car driver this, lorry driver that.

    EVERYONE IS PART OF THE PROBLEM

    Too many people, and too many people consuming. All the other problems stem from that. Rubbish, Oil, food, Climate change. Its all about the population exceeding what the earth can sustain.

    Worse case scenario if we dont do anything at all is it will inevitably sort itself out, Famine, Floods, wars over oil etc.
  11. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    I would have thought a managed decline would have been preferable to a collapse.

    Cabon convergence through rationing is the only way to achieve this.

    It's never as simple as one issue, yes population is a problem, but as the global population growth is slowing anyway this is not the whole issue, and its not even as simple as the rich world low growth vs developing world high, as countries like Thailand have lower birth rates than the UK. It's reckoned it will peak somewhere around 2040 at 9 billion +

    As the Western countries make up a small percentage of total population but have by far the largest environmental impact, and consume the most resources, population is not the biggest factor.
  12. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    It doesn't matter at what rate wiki says the poplaution is growing. It still growing.

    It doesn't matter what the population actually is, what matters is the ability for the planet to be able to sustain that number.

    It cant, and the planet is telling us that in a million and one different ways.

    If you want to address Oil as a problem the correct solution will have to take all the factors into account. Its not simply switching off lights and transportation as much as everyone wants to believe that the solution.

    Its a bigger problem than that and it stems from population and its consumption
  13. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives


    I honestly dont think that is going to happen until you get some greedy corporation going "dya knwo what weve been untter cunts for donkeys eyars and I think maybe we've made enough cash. Lets face it I've got a bank account equivalent to the balance of payments defecit of a small third world country. Get Gordo on the phone and tell him sod it, All the medical drugs are free and while were at it lets release the plans for that car that turns CO2 into oxygen. Free windmills for everyone.

    All that will happen is that the govt will use it as a way of rasing revenue, and give those in suburbia a reason to buy new cars, new energy efficient this, super wanky that. More reasons to consume.

    Proof of this should be the congestion charge.
    It was put in place to stop the congestion in London. So WOOHOOm when it gets no money or make very little at all it should be deemed a success.

    Er. . no. Were not making any money so we want to include Bicycles, one legged hopping donkeys and people riding piggyback. Extend it out as far as Manchester and cos we really are that strapped for cash, If you bring a lorry an inch past the M25 we gonna charge you more thatn the truck is worth in charges.

    nice

    It will just be another way to tax people
  14. kyser_soze

    kyser_soze Hawking's Angry Eyebrow

    Define 'Western' countries please, with a list. Then work out their total population. The come back with 'small percentage' of the total population. Deoending on how you count 'Western', it's between 25 and 35% of the total population(depending on whether you mean 'industrialised capitalist nations or something else). China is about 25%, India about 20%.

    I dunno - I don't consider 25% to be a 'small percentage'. A minority for sure, but a very sizeable one.
  15. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    Kyser,

    I get the feeling that there's a bit of blinkered argument going on here.

    It appears to me that an issue is being rasied as single issue and not part of a bigger picture that it belongs to.

    This enables a point to be made for a specific cause. In this instance the price of oil and how we are the devil incarnate if we use a vehicle.

    I suspect that bringing up linked issues and those, behind the point doesn't help make that specific cause the only course of action. Hence why its importantance in the eye of the OP is negligable.
  16. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Ok, some very rough statistics worked out from Wiki stats.

    If you take Western Countries to mean the standard definition of rich developed countries: Autstralia / NZ, EU 15, Scandanvia and Switzerland, USA and Canada, and Japan, it works out as around 13% of world population. These countries consume more than half of the world's oil production, around 51.5%.

    However the BRIC nations alone account for a further 13.5% of world oil consumption, and since much of their industrial output, which is the most resouce hungry part of their economies, is for export to the wealthy nations above, (can't find a statistic but beleieve it to be somewhere over 20% of the total), and since this pattern will probably be reflected for most commodities, thus the richest 13% of world population probably account for over 60% of total world resource consumption.
  17. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    Oil is currently hovering around £108, so this should take a huge amount of the pressure of off most countries round the world, although the dollar has strengthened significantly as well and is now at about $1.78 to the £ so the pound has weakened in the order of 10% against the dollar.

    We shall see how long the LOOP and other oil facilities are going to be out of action after Gustav.
  18. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    It has plunged nearly 8 bucks in a day!!

    We should see petrol come down by about 3-4p a litre as a result.
  19. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

  20. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Oil dips to $91

    The oil price is falling as quickly as the value of property on the news from Wall Street, as everyone now seems to predict at best a short recession, and at worst complete economic meltdown.

    Let me reword that;... at worst a short recession, and at best a total economic collapse. (as we'll never overthrow the capitalists, until they destroy their own system).

    So, does this mean that we are about to see the roads re-populated by mother's shuttling their fat brats to and from school in gas guzzling SUVs powered by cheap petrol?

    Well, thank-goodness the answer is no..

    While Oil production has climbed very slightly and demand is likely to be reduced as airlines go broke, the oil production figures from August still show peak oil is still just around the corner, so for any car dependents out there, you have a short reprieve, I would advise you use it to figure out a way to break the car habit, before it breaks your bank account.

    [​IMG]
  21. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    This all seem to be going a bit "Its another tobyjug fact" to me
  22. Roadkill

    Roadkill selling postcards of the hanging

    This rather reminds me of an evangelist talking about The Rapture.
  23. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Except the rapture is never going to happen, but peak oil will and that's utterly inescapable.
  24. Roadkill

    Roadkill selling postcards of the hanging

    I don't dispute that demand is rising well ahead of supply, meaning that the price is on an upward trend and will remain so, regardless of whether we've already hit peak production, whether we're going to sometime soon or whether it's some way off yet. I just find roryer's evangelism on the subject funny, because it comes across principally as a desperate desire for Peak Oil to come and sweep all of the four-wheeled sinners from the streets.
  25. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Not exactly, I want to see us move towards a transition to a sustainable transport system, and peak oil is something that people can understand very easily. Arguments like, "You've only got 2 years before petrol costs more than you can easiliy afford, why don't you start to look into new ways to get your goods and services without driving long distances." is something that appeals to the selfishness that the capitalist system has bred into many people's outlook on life.

    While pointing out things like: - driving is helping to cause irriversible climate change which if unchecked will leave the planet unihabitable by mankind within a generation.
    or
    - if we all cycled it would be better for us all, freeing up roadpace and reducing the costs of transport for society.

    or
    - once we have made the changes, we would never want to give up the quiet safe clean streets and efficient fast transport system we would have.

    These arguments are all true and valid, but appeal to the community spirit, which unfortuneatley no longer exists for most people, who after generations of capitalism have been brainwashed into believing that are lives are a 'rat race' and 'there's no such thing as soceity'

    Therefore peak oil and the coming energy cliff, does at least ask people to think for a minute about, what am I going to do when I can't afford petrol anymore.
  26. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    We aren't seeing much reduction at the pumps yet- still 109.9 in Derby :(
  27. kyser_soze

    kyser_soze Hawking's Angry Eyebrow

    But...you can't predict it like that. Putting an actual timescale on it won't wash with anyone.
  28. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Very true. Given the woeful transparency of the oil business, it's very difficult to do so.
  29. djbombscare

    djbombscare Plays with knives

    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that wont happen. We'll not in the capitalist regoins of the world where consumerism is rife.

    This is the very abridged version by the way: What with the markets going pop, it's likely to be the next investment bubble will be in that of green products. In fact its already started.

    There the carbon trading and products that moving away frOm ruNning fossil fuels.

    Now I think its fair to say that forms of personal transport NOT public transport, that do not use fossil fuels exist.And I'm not talking abotu recharging an electric car overnight off the national grid. That just shifts the demand to another fossil fuel.

    Public opinion in them is we want them and can use them. At the moment we are not given the alternative of using them as the infrastructure is not in place for them to be a replacemnet to what we currentlly use.

    However with the move in investment and public opinion towards greener transport. By the time peak oil is reached demand for it will be virtually non existant. The developing countries will be fucked over by it, NOT the consumer based economies like ours. The technology will be released as soon as the govt work out how they can make money off it, to replace the fuel taxation they will be lossing. It will be another reason for us to consume another product and grow an economy. The smart money is going into that right now.

    Transportation will not come to grinding halt, it will be replaced before peak oil is reached. The reason we are where we are at the moment is because govts and corporations are making money out of us. If we get an alternative they wont. They're just hanging on until they reach peak profit, at the expense of us.
  30. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    I'm not sure what you are proposing, if you suggesting that hoping that the energy crunch will stop the march of car dominance and lead to a more efficient sustainable transport system is false, then I can accept that.

    Although this analysis of EROI (energy return on investment) is illuminating on the potential of other fuels.

    Coal is the big unknown of course, we have enough left to tip the balance into catasrtropic climate change, and in all likelyhood we will seek to liquify coal to power cars.

    http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46579

    A brief summary:
    It takes energy to get energy. EROI is a measurement of the efficiency of this process. EROI is usually expressed in a ratio, say, 20 to 1. That would mean that the process being studied produced 20 units of energy for every one unit expended. As it turns out, that's about what conventional crude oil returns.

    United States is currently running on an EROI of just under 40 to 1.
    Crude Oil - 20 -1

    Tar Sands - The Oil Drum gives a tentative estimate of 5.2 to 1 based on admittedly incomplete data.

    Coal has a very high return when used to generate electricity, around 80 to 1, but total energy content of coal is falling despite tonage increasing.

    Nuclear? perhaps 11 to 1. But, if one takes into account all the energy that will be expended over time storing nuclear waste and guarding the waste and the mothballed nuclear plants in the future, the EROI could drop below 1. Essentially, we get the benefit now, and future generations get both the security and energy expenditures.

    Solar power: EROI ranges are so wide that it would be difficult to promise that solar photovoltaic could consistently provide returns above 5 to 1.

    Wind: up to 70 to 1 for wind power in one location, but huge variablity with location. The main problem with wind and solar, is that they are intermittent; the energy produced is difficult to store for use during nighttime or low-wind conditions.

    Hydro - Very high EROI, but very limited availablity of sites.

    The Energy Cliff
    In a society that has an EROI of 40 about 2.5 percent of the economy is devoted to gathering energy for the other 97.5 percent.

    If an economy has an EROI of 30 to 1, then the portion of the economy involved in gathering energy rises to about 3.3 percent.

    EROI 20 to 1 to 5 percent

    10 to 1 to 10 percent.

    EROI of 5 to 1, puts 20 percent of the economy within the general classification of energy gathering. This is the net energy cliff.

    If the drop came quickly, it would be very difficult to adapt. If the EROI were to drop to, say, 3, this would imply that potentially every third person would be involved in gathering energy in some fashion. Such a society would have little resemblence to the one we now inhabit.

    The net energy cliff shows us how important EROI is when considering energy alternatives. Even very large resources such as the tar sands and oil shale become problematic when one considers their EROI.

    There appear to be two ways forward then. One is to hope for breakthroughs which increase the energy returns of alternative energy sources. (your choice)

    A second is to rework our infrastructure and our way of living so that our society can better withstand a significant overall decline in EROI should it develop. (My Choice)

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