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Oil Prices at record high - $145 a barrel

Discussion in 'transport' started by roryer, Apr 15, 2008.

  1. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    IM doing a long summer camping holiday driving to Vendee in france, fully laden. I know fuel is cheaper in Europe, but its still gonna be a serious amount of cash
  2. corporate whore

    corporate whore oh, thought you were dead

    $135. Up $5 in a day, mostly on the International Energy Agency saying for the first time that supply is unlikely to keep up with demand.

    Markets spooked.
  3. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    a hot summer will fuck everything up and there will be a run on the tight stockpiles - Plattes etc expected a rise in stockpiles, but the D/Energy announced a drop in stock - by a couple of % - not much in the big scheme of things, but enough to raise fears about US security and derendance on imported oil

    Yankee refieneries are running at a remarkable 87% capacity at the minute - fairly racing along

    Yankee deisel is $4.65 a gallon - thats serious money for a nation used to paying pennies for their fuel

    re the contango issue

    http://www.forbes.com/commodities/2008/05/21/oil-euro-dollar-markets-commodities-cx_ll_0521markets08.html?boxes=relstories
  4. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    I bet financial news editors love making conTANGO puns in their headlines :D
  5. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    Oil has just traded for $145. The dollar has taken a beating this week though as the DJ has hit bear territory (down 20% from its highs last year).

    The Marshall Islands have declared a state of emergency due to lack of oil, US consumption is down about 800 000 barrels a day on average but its refinaries are only running at around 90% or just bellow and the finished goods stocks (from refinaries) in the US are falling.
  6. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Thought I'd edit the title to keep up
  7. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Yes, but what's exciting is that the price of oil is finally making sustainable energy alternatives to fossil fuels viable, like solar power towers in California. In the Marshall Islands they are looking into OTEC, using the temperature difference of tropical waters between the surface and deep water to power a turbine.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_thermal_energy_conversion

    Unfortunately it will take several years, if not decades to bring these technologies online, by which time oil will be many hundreds of dollars a barrel. That's assuming the dollar as a unit of currency still has any value and the whole global economic system has not already collapsed. :)cool: secretly wish the economic system would collapse, its capitalism that caused most of our problems in the first place).
  8. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Unfortunately, it's also the only system we've currently got with the resources and power to make the industrial-scale changes we need :(
  9. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    As I mentioned before, a hot summer will really put the US under pressure - From what Ive read , I have an inkling that this years fall Hurricane season may be worse than usual - nasty

    the huge speculation on commodities , including oil, will continue, as Banks & Financiers attempt to claw back the $ they have swallowed due to the Housing situation - it is in tbeir interest to be bullish and keep the market rising - all and sundry are into the energy markets now - My old employer ( twats BTW) barely breaks even on its finanicial market / investment and hard goods trading ( because they are corrupt wasteful fat arsed wankers), but the recently formed Energy subsid is making enough money to keep the whole of the EMEA liquid - 25 employees are paying the wages of the other 1000

    I cannot see Oil price coming down significantly - there is no benefit to OPEC in doing this ,whatever may be said publicly - the OPEC members are bemused at how previously taboo levels are hit and surpassed on a regular basis - No longer are they dependant on the US as an ally, the balance has changed to the producer ( whilst the supplies last )

    short term , Oil use is inelastic - i.e. we cant decide to stop using it tomorrow and order coal instead

    Economic policy is being rejigged around the world to accomodate the $150+ barrel - this isnt a blip that can be swallowed any longer - better get used it it Truckers, the King Canute approach you are taking will be your eventual downfall

    when we start to build in $150 a barrel benchmarks, then wode betide the national park oil shales that are lying peacefully at the minute - Even the new messiah - Obama - will accept looking inward for energy is the only option ( and Energy security is high on the agenda for the US atm )

    Interesting times .

    um
  10. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Bringing it back to transport I found this article extremely encouraging...

    Motorists to cut back on driving due to cost of fuel

    Almost half of motorists are ready to cut back on driving because of the soaring cost of fuel, according to an AA poll.
    The survey of 17,481 members found that drivers are ready to alter their behaviour to save money and fuel costs.

    The poll found that 48 per cent saying that they were ready to cut out short journeys by car, while 62 per cent said they would consider buying a more efficient model.

    Even driving styles are changing, with 60 per cent saying they would be ready to stick to speed limits and be more gentle on the accelerator to save fuel.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-cut-back-on-driving-due-to-cost-of-fuel.html
  11. Roadkill

    Roadkill a clown's heart

  12. Sunray

    Sunray Its sunny somewhere.

    The US/EU decision to have a percentage of all of its fuel as biofuel has to go down in history as one of the stupidest ideas ever.

    Energy density of plants just isn't enough to produce fuel in any quantity. This was a well known fact well before they introduced the idea of biofuels.
  13. gentlegreen

    gentlegreen Nadie espera a la inquisicion española.

    It only dawned on me yesterday as they fit new (double-glazed) windows and insulation at work, that the place was built around the time of the first major fuel crisis in the early 70s. :rolleyes:

    They didn't insulate the roof until a mini hurricane blew the old one off in the late 80s ...
  14. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    This study by Canada's CIBC bank looks at the effect of $200 oil on transportation in America, it'd be really interesting to look at a study of what will happen in the UK, the DfT must have done one, I'll ask.

    http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?optio...00-oil&catid=17:national-commentary&Itemid=79

    One recent effort to assess $200 oil was undertaken by Canada's CIBC bank. Starting with the well publicized decline in auto sales, the bank concludes that U.S. light vehicle (cars, trucks, SUV, and vans) sales will be down to 11 million by 2012 from 17 million a few years ago. The share of SUVs and light trucks is expected to be less that half that of their banner years. Increased scrapping of light vehicles combined with lower sales leads the bank to conclude that there will be roughly 10 million fewer registered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2012.

    While this may sound like an impressive number, Americans are currently driving around 230 million light vehicles so 10 million less is not too significant. The more important question is how much the remaining vehicles are going to be used. Here the bank foresees a 15 percent drop in the average miles driven by 2012. Presumably an increasing share of these miles will be driven in newer, more efficient vehicles so that that the drop in U.S. gasoline consumption would be greater than 15 percent.

    The CIBC study, which deals primarily with transportation, certainly anticipates a relatively benign world in which we scrap our old cars, don't buy SUVs and those households earning less than $25,000 a year and have access to public transportation, take the bus. The people interviewed by the Los Angeles Times seem to have a much darker view of the immediate future.

    There are simply too many unknowns out there to form a conclusion as to just how bad it may get. The Bank's $200 oil in 2010 could easily prove to be optimistic for some are talking about $200 before the year is out even without a major supply disruption. Then we have the hurricane season. And many are convinced that the Bush administration will not leave office with an Iranian nuclear program still in place.

    While some sort of quantitative evaluation of our future would be nice, $200 oil easily could be here before anyone can crunch the numbers.
  15. HackneyE9

    HackneyE9 Well-Known Member

    I doubt it. The latest govt figures which all transport projections are based on sees between now and 2018 oil being 50-70 dollars a barrel, and the TOP END range was, I think, still under triple figures. There was a blog post about this on Iain Dale's site a couple of months ago. Basically, it makes all road transport projects much less pressing on a cost/benefit analysis, and is the reason why Ruth Kelly is already doing a U-turn just one year after the 10 year rail plan, and suggesting widespread electrification, which was ruled out in summer 2007, plus also maybe a new high speed north south line.

    Interesting times indeed.

    You've got to suspect that the price at some point will "drop" back to "only" 100 dollars, everyone will go panic over, see how wild those rumour mongers were, forgetting that 100 is still double the 50 it was a year before, and then it shoots up to 200-300.

    Some Lufthansa official said last year they expect oil to reach 350 dollars a barrel, but I haven't been able to Google that quote, unfortunately.
  16. elbows

    elbows WoeTimer

    Mmm well I would expect the price to go down again somewhat after the summer, due to seasonal variations in demand for oil. Quite how far it will fall is unclear, as supply concerns are more spoken of this year, the dollar is knackered and international tensions (eg Iran) are quite strong. Until the last few years, the press used to talk far more about how the July 4 holiday was the peak of driving season in the USA.

    It seems reasonable to predict that people will slowly change their driving habits somewhat, will switch to smaller cars, increase use of public transport, number of flights will decrease & some non-essential journeys will cease. A recession or depression will also make quite a difference to how much consumption occurs.

    What Im really interested in is the longer term, whether 'cars for the masses' survives as a workable thing at all. I imagine this depends on how far the biofuel stuff gets, and the electric car. When Britains electricity future is discussed, there is already some credence given to the idea that people will have electric cars, which are charged overnight, and that this is one way to store the power that is generated off-peak, and then use it at peak times. But it is far from clear whether Britains electricity infrastructure will meet existing demand in future, let alone a switch to transport using electricity far more. And then there is the issue as to how much it costs to replace our existing stock of petrol cars with electric ones, and quite how many people will be priced off the road.
  17. Sunray

    Sunray Its sunny somewhere.

    All this is debated seemingly without any reference to the bigger picture. $150 oil, makes everything much much more expensive so while you might be able to drive less, one thing is for sure, stuff driven to you will also be taking chunks out of your pocket. Forcing you to drive less, perhaps not even own a car.

    We have not even seen the beginning of the cost implications of these oil prices, because they are future prices and take time to work their way to producers.
  18. elbows

    elbows WoeTimer

    Oh yes I quite agree, especially when we consider how much of human progress in the last 70 years was due to coming up with more and more things to turn oil into. Oil & gas woes have massive implications for many chemicals,materials, manufacturing processes, food, without even considering transport issues. A big recession or depression seems the most likely way all of this will manifest itself. I would predict really high rates of inflation, except a large increase in unemployment would negate this somewhat. Either way its misery.

    Certain industries/sectors, did somewhat reduce their reliance on oil, back during the 70's oil crisis, making them a little better prepared to take a new wave of oil price rises on the chin, but its not much, bought us a little time.

    Id like to know how much of the planets resources I have saved by buying music & films online rather than on disc. Were we dealing with only a small reduction of oil supply in future, Id be a lot more optimistic. Things like the internet, and reducting waste/improving efficiency could overcome the problems, but as I think the problem is far greater, it will lead to massive changes in lifestyle for almost everyone.
  19. Mitre10

    Mitre10 50% more profanity inside

  20. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    Down again,now at $126. I saw 114.9ppl Unleaded in Derby today - will it go lower still?
  21. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Maybe. A great deal of the current spike has been to do with factors apart from production rates. I think further drops are likely. When global production starts to fall (I'd say a 6 month trend will be enough) then the panic will set back in.
  22. jæd

    jæd Corporate Hooker

    So... Pretty much what I've been saying all along (along with the more credible analysts). Shame. World not going to end, then...? :confused: :D
  23. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    Course it isn't but we will still see oil production fall at some point and we need to be ready. It's one of the reasons I don't agree with (some) environmentalists who want to leave coal in the ground.

    IMHO we need coal, nuclear, renewables AND more efficent use. With that four-fold combination we stand a fighting chance.
  24. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Well, no. By 'great deal' I mean ~30% and by 'further drops' I mean probably not back under $100.
    This price spike is ugly, but the real tipping point hasn't even arrived yet.
  25. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    As the oil price 'plummets' to below US$120 and some predict it could go 'as low' as US$100, I think it is interesting to consider that this thread began in mid-April at the shock of the oil price reaching US$110.

    There has been a fair bit of discussion about whether the oil price was a speculative bubble that needed to be burst, or if this was a foretaste of the peak oil scenario.

    What seems likely is that due to the beginnings of a recession we are seeing a slackening of demand, and speculation partly driven by Peak Oilists, led to a much quicker price accent than was necessary, but now at $100 there are now articles showing that people are starting to feel the crisis is past, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/wheres-that-tipping-point_n_117090.html , and therefore rolling back the energy saving lifestyle changes, thus leading to a renewed spurt of demand, which will most likely bring on a new price surge.

    Many Peak Oil theorists predicted this exact scenario of an extended period of price instability at around the time we reached the peak of oil production, as high prices destroy demand, leading to lower prices, leading to increased demand, leading to a renewed price spike etc.

    Fortunately this time Europe is in a much stronger position than the US, as the flutuations on the price consumers pay is masked by the high levels of taxation which we are already used to. As long as we understand that the age of cheap oil is over, and use the brief respite in price rises, to raise the levels of taxation to provide funds to invest in energy efficient alternatives to provide for community accessibility to goods and services, we might get through the coming decades of transition without entering the massive economic depression the likes of which will make 1929 seem like a party, which is widely predicted.
  26. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    I filled up at 110.9 this morning
  27. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    world airlines are reducing flights by 7% in quarter 4 2008, and 2009 is expected to be worse as most of them are operating at a loss and running on lines of credit.

    Major drops in demand in America and Europe.

    With the end of the olympics looming chinas stockpiling of diesel and burning of fuel oil in place of coal will come to an end.

    Factory orders in China fell very fast in July.

    And with a 450 000 barrel a day refinary opening in India, one that can take heavy sour as an input and refines 40% diesel should reduce the cracking spread problems that have been seen recently and the shortage of diesel.

    Oil will probibly hit $100 before it hits $150.

    Oh yeah and the dollar is back bellow $1.45 to the Euro.
  28. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    I agree, an article in today's Telegraph predicts US$80 by early next year. I personally think this graph is more improtant than fickle speculators buying or dumping oil futures. You may notice that production has been pretty flat for the last 3 years.
    [​IMG]
  29. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    At $80 those planes that are getting parked up suddenly become pretty profitable again, even the old MD80's and 737's, so consumption goes back up pretty quickly, and the SUVs will be comming out of the garage onto the roads again.

    As for production, well there is alot of it due to hit the markets, especialy from Saudi so its the old question how much will it simply make up for depletion from older fields and loss of export and producers consumption increases rapidly?
  30. Divisive Cotton

    Divisive Cotton Now I just have my toy soldiers

    Oil 'could hit $200 within years'



    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7549044.stm

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