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Oil Prices at record high - $145 a barrel

Discussion in 'transport' started by roryer, Apr 15, 2008.

  1. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    In the US Toyota is laughing and Crysler crying. GM and Ford are scrambling to introduce more economic lines. The Prius is treated as some kind of wonder car out there but Toyata also do alot of normal cars not mini urban assault vehicles.

    Youd think Ford and GM could retool to bring in the kind of cars they sell around the world to the US, stuff like Opels and well Fords.
     
  2. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    They are currently all playing a game of holding in there breath and seeing who dies first. The ones running older aircraft on short haul routes will keel over first, possibly a couple of well known former national carriers in Europe. I did see some fleet stats on various US carriers with a few of the well known ones with significant fleets of DC10s and a few 727's. The older planes are a hell of a lot less fuel efficient. Short haul routes also tend to be less fuel efficient. So right now they are all trying to keep prices lowish and running through there lines of credit. As the ones with the older fleets start to really feel the pinch they will lose investor confidence and fold. A proverbial knife fight in a telephone booth.

    Airlines with longhaul international routes should fair better although they tend to be the former flag carriers and have but have older fleets for local flights.

    If oil is still above $100 by August Septemer time there will be a rash of routes getting taken out of service (already happening), consolidations, planes being parked in the desert and a long list of airline bankruptcies.

    In theory this will cut down the amount of fuel being used so prices will come down a touch and as there is less compitition the airlines left standing can start raising prices.

    A good time to invest in the UK and German domestic holiday industry.
     
  3. rioted

    rioted redundant

    Canals will rule again!
     
  4. Oswaldtwistle

    Oswaldtwistle Banned

    Things are slowly improving over there, the Fiesta will launch soon and the Yaris has already done so I think.

    But they are already well behind the UK in fuel economy.
     
  5. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

  6. Chip Barm

    Chip Barm bizarre wanking accident

    *subscribes to thread.

    Nothing to offer but I drive a car so the cost is always an issue.

    I think on Tomorrows World years ago they forcast that petrol would be £20 a gallon by 2012, looks very possible?
     
  7. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    That's about 2.2 times current prices, by my reckoning (current price = 115p/l = 522p/g). Duty is 40p of that, and VAT is 17.5% (77p) so the price of the raw product has to rise from approximately 227p/gallon today, to 405p in 4 years, a 178% rise. That's not outside the realms of possibility at all.
     
  8. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    Oil hits yet another fresh high.. Driven by surging demand and continuing supply concerns, US light crude touched $124.70 a barrel.... Soaring global demand for oil is being led by China's continuing economic boom and, to a lesser extent, by India's rapid economic expansion....Oil prices are also rising as the key US summer driving season approaches... Economists warn that continuing high oil prices will impact on the global economy, hitting growth and fuelling inflation.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7391576.stm

    Although these constant price rises are getting boring, since the transition from an oil based transport system is likely to be the biggest story of our lifetime I thought it worth posting...
     
  9. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Keep it up, please :)
     
  10. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    The summer will be a pivotal point for many in the US- many underestimate the cost of running the country through what is likely to be a sweltering summer - we automatically assume that the big costs relate to winter heatinmg - not so, with the A/c for office / home/ car on max for the summer months , the energy requirement will be huge for North America, the price spike is expected to be bigger than normal all things considered

    with Politicos talking about ensuring prices are locked for the summer months , this is pretty scarey stuff

    I didn read the other week and article about that man made island complex in Dubai, the one shaped like a palm tree ?

    apparently private residence A.C bills are £800 a month for much of the year in thism location

    thats per month!
     
  11. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    And now we know we are running out of oil, an article in the Hindu reports Coal shortage in India...

    "Nearly a third of the country’s thermal stations are now reported to be facing “critical stocks”, where coal stocks are expected to last less than seven days...

    China, which is also facing low domestic reserves and acute power shortage, has stepped up coal purchases internationally...

    The resultant rise in the global spot prices of coal, which have shot up to over $140 per tonne...

    Just in case anyone believes the coal industry's claims of "300 years of reserves", watch this lecture:
     
  12. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    We have $125 oil (based on west texas intermediate)
     
  13. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    There is a theory that kicks round called "export land model". Basicaly many exporting countries keep the oil price domestivaly very low (Venezuala and Iran are good examples). This means they consume more than the price on the open market dictates. Also as the price goes up more cash comes into those economies. This means that if they do not grow production very rapidly there exports fall. I was reading about some of the new powerstations someone (Kuwait Im sure) was installing. It was a real mess. They were installing oil burning boilers on pretty much the fastest turbines they could get build to keep up with demand, this meant they were very inefficient burning oil not gas. Saudi is supposed to see a drop of about 1 million barrels a day through the summer on increased domestic demand over the summer months. (It was one of the investment banks producing a report a few months ago).

    Its gold rush fever over there in the gulf at the minute.

    On the other hand US car manufacturers are now talking about total redesign from the ground up of SUVs to make them lighter. Even taking 8 cylender models out of production.

    A transfer of wealth really.
     
  14. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    This is crazy. The price has gone up a dollar every two days since this thread started.
     
  15. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    I honestly keep thinking its going to fall back to about $90. I am consistantly wrong.

    Its gotten to a point where we will think of $100 oil as a reasonable price. At some point people will stop flying as much, buying as much plastic, driving as large cars and demand will fall.

    Then again there is the new Indian Nano car to comeonline. Jevons paradox.
     
  16. david dissadent

    david dissadent New Member

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/09/commodities.oil

    I will amend one thing I have said. I had said that the US is short of the produce for unleaded, it appears I am slightly wrong. The refinaries have not been making enough but the US has been importing enough to make up the gap.
     
  17. roryer

    roryer 道可道非常道,名可名非常名

    After a dip down to below $121, oil prices have now climbed back to just over $124.

    I found this interesting parallel on the Oil Drum Europe, with Oil depletion and Whale oil.

    http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3960

    ....historical data for whaling tell us that an exponential rise of the prices is not the only feature of the post-peak market. The prominent feature is, rather, the presence of very strong price oscillations. We can attribute these oscillations to a general characteristic of systems dominated by feedback and time delays. Prices are supposed to mediate between offer and demand, but tend to overcorrect on one side or another. The result is an alternance of demand destruction (high prices) and offer destruction (low prices).

    What we are seeing at present with crude oil is, most likely, one of these price spikes. Eventually, it will overdo its job of curbing demand and turn into a price collapse. We can imagine how, in the collapsing phase, everyone will start screaming that the "oil crisis" of the first decades of 21st century was just a hoax, just as it was said for the crisis of the 1970s. Then, a new upward spike will start.

    Here, too, the history of whaling can teach us something in terms of the difficulty that people have in understanding depletion. In Starbuck's book (on whale oil 1887), we never find mention that whales had become scarce. On the contrary, the decline of the catch was attributed to such factors as the whales' "shyness" and the declining "character of the men engaged". Starbuck seems to think that the crisis of the whaling industry of his times can be solved by means of governmental subsidies. Some things never change. "
     
  18. rich!

    rich! stalin tache

    Then lock the thread before the Editor gets sued :D
     
  19. pinkychukkles

    pinkychukkles Don't cry cos it's over, smile because it happened

    It set a new record of $127 today... :eek:
     
  20. Griff

    Griff Hardly posting anymore

    Saw diesel at £1.28 a litre just outside Cambridge yesterday. :(

    Also saw some expenses from our sales people in the States at $3.88 a gallon.

    Summat's rotten here.
     
  21. Sunray

    Sunray Its sunny somewhere.

    Fuel duty.

    Unfortunately, limited space on the roads as we are a small country and the Gov love of the tax ensures this will always be true. Electing either Gov has done nothing but put up the price of fuel.

    I do actually think that $200 per barrel is actually on the horizon. The very person who predicted $100 has said 150-200. I don't own a car so that inflation is only passed onto me indirectly.
     
  22. corporate whore

    corporate whore oh, thought you were dead

    $130/bbl. Up and up and up and up....
     
  23. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Also, oil is now in cotango. I have a flimsy grasp of the economics, but it means that futures traders now see no fall in the price of oil. Up until recently, oil futures got cheaper, the further into the future they expired. Now, even 16 years ahead, the market doesn't see any drop in oil prices.
     
  24. jusali

    jusali Back on the brink........

    Sheeeite! :eek: Some serious shit's gonna hit the fan eh? :(
     
  25. zoltan

    zoltan Transnistria festishist

    contango ?

    are you sure you dont work for " the man";)

    but basically yes - contango effectively means that there isnt a shortage of the commodity for delivery on spot - when a shortage happens, backwardation, the price of readily available stuff is higher than the forward contracts, even factoring into account delivery charges and suchlike

    Obviously someone cutting down supply or a strike can squeeze ready to deliver supplies and backwardation can happen very quickly

    fuck. Ive just been made redundant from the business, but I still read this stuff...soemtimes
     
  26. jayeola

    jayeola New Member

    Hrm, solar-powered data centers...
     
  27. Roadkill

    Roadkill Captain Ignatius Aloysius Atcherson

    I'd already abandoned the vague idea I had for this summer of buying an old car as a hobby before the recent oil price hikes. It's just as well I did: I was planning on buying a hefty old Volvo, and its 25mpg thirst would probably have bankrupted me... :D
     
  28. Sunray

    Sunray Its sunny somewhere.

    6 quid a gallon. Trip to Cornwall at 30Mpg = 120 quid.

    Thats quite a lot.
     
  29. Crispy

    Crispy Fond of drink and industry

    Only if you travel alone!
    It's not like this isn't hurting the trains as well - the majority of UK rail is still deisel.

    For comparison, a saver return for the same journey is £75
     
  30. Sunray

    Sunray Its sunny somewhere.

    True, but I fancied buying a van and DIY convert it to a Camper so I can go surfing more often. Can't really surf without transport.

    2.5Tdi Ford Transits are cheap due to the LEZ. Only do about 30-40Mpg.
     

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