London Mayoral election

Latest ICM polling puts Ken as 100% of vote in Kensington and Chelsea, with an 8pt Boris lead overall. Methinks its flawed.

That's because they ask 20-40 people in each borough, and often less than 20 even have a voting intention. Why this doesn't necessarily invalidate the overall survey is touched on here.

Polls reported tonight are interesting in a couple of ways.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

1. The Survation poll shows higher figures for Paddick and some of the other minor candidates than other polls have shown.

2. Assuming that both the YouGov national poll and the Survation London Mayoral poll are more or less right, the effect of (the perceived personalities of) both main London mayoral candidates is very large. Livingstone's support is way below his party's and Johnson's support is way above his party's.

Please, not that foppy haired fuckwit from Eton. He's a part of that cuntish millionaires group who reside in Whitehall.

I havent read all of this thread but I imagine the reason the foppy haired fuckwit will get in is because many people wont vote at all. Not that I blame them in anyway but bus fares might be £5 pretty soon if he does get in.

this is doubly interesting, because for most of the past 15 years, Livingstone has polled much better than Labour have.

more likely because there are lots of rich people in London I would have thought.

i'm guessing, but perhaps this poll identified the parties of all candidates in questioning, and the others did not.

Dont reckon thats true
http://www.londonspovertyprofile.org.uk/

Poor people are less likely to vote. London has the highest concentration of rich and relatively rich people in the country.

Exactly my point, but the poor outnumber the rich in London. Thats a fact, not my opinion.

The observation that there are lots of rich people in London is true, regardless of how many poor people there are too. Just have to hope that Ken's co-op will bring inner London out in force, and a few cunted off Tories don't bother.

latest odds


Boris Johnson (Conservative) 1/4
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 5/2
Siobhan Benita (Ind) 25/1
Jenny Jones (Green) 100/1
Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) 100/1
Lawrence Webb (UKIP) 250/1
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) 500/1

So they reckon Benita will beat both Greens and LDs? I'd be surprised. Afraid that Livingstone will probably be done by turnout in core areas.

No. There are separate odds for 'without the big two' and odds for both Lib Dem and Benita's share of the vote.

Really failing to get why Boris Johnson doesn't seem to be suffering at all from the Tories' recent general decline in the polls.

He gets away with a lot on his persona - I'm not saying that's a good thing, but people might not necessarily see him as a conservative, they just see him as Boris?

Because the campaign has been about personality not policy...

The divergence is extraordinary. Assuming that both lots of polls are more or less accurate and Johnson is on his way to reelection, I think it just shows how much this election is seen as being about two personalities, rather than about parties or policies. 'Boris' is relatively popular and 'Ken' is relatively unpopular. In today's media, Johnson has again been going out of his way to distance himself from the unpopular government: calling for tax cuts, being mildly rude about Osborne and boasting of how he fights for London interests, having rows with the Chancellor when necessary.

Anyone get the feeling that the electorate aren't that interested ? Does anyone see the genuine causality implied with voting for either Boris or Ken ?

Will look good on his CV when he challenges for Tory leadership

Because his PR people are on the ball and canny. Hence, for example, the lightning-fast comments about Kosovo-style social cleansing when the housing minister opened his yap last week.

Got to say that Ken sounds tired now. He's lost his mojo.

He is looking and sounding like yesterday's man, isn't he?

I'm getting resigned to a Boris victory, sadly. I really don't want it to happen because a) Boris is a shit mayor, and b) him being booted out would be a blow for Cameron, but I think it's going to.

I dunno what's happened with KL, he just looks clapped out. I've been resigned to BJ for a while, that's what the polls have been saying. More to the point where is the younger interesting Labour candidate? There's just no one, just hopeless, bland new Labour lite clones. Utter wankers.

I blame (large chunks of) the electorate. 'Personality'/'celebrity' obsessed twats!

How can people be so bloody stupid as not to be perfectly well aware that Boris Johnson is just as much of Tory as George Osborne is? Cretins!

Fair enough, though I doubt many people are obsessed by 'Boris' or 'Ken'.

I also suggest that the candidates must take some of the blame/credit.

One notable thing about Livingstone's campaign is that he is offering at least two things that should be very very popular: a London replacement for the EMA and cheaper tube fares. I think the reason these promises are not working well for him must be that people do not believe him. (If I were in London, I would want to know more about what is being proposed, but my gut feeling - and I think the gut feeling of many - is that Livingstone is not to be trusted an inch.)

Johnson loses it

Swearing on television

If you think that's 'losing it', I don't think you've ever seen anyone 'lose it'.